CADE Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor. CADE is in a bearish short-term trend and, more importantly, its upside is likely capped by the pending all-stock sale to Huntington (HBAN) expected to close in Q1 2026. With hedge funds selling aggressively and analysts sitting at Market Perform, the risk/reward for initiating a fresh position today is not attractive—especially for an impatient investor looking for a clean long-term entry.
Price/Trend: CADE is trading at 42.295 (-2.11% today) and is below the key pivot (44.27), which keeps near-term momentum tilted bearish. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.368) and expanding lower, indicating increasing downside momentum. RSI: RSI(6)=32.7, close to oversold territory, suggesting selling pressure is elevated but not yet a clear reversal signal. Levels: Immediate support sits around S1=42.55 (currently slightly below it) and then S2=41.48. Resistance is 44.27 (pivot) then 45.99. Pattern-based forward odds provided: model suggests weak near-term edge (next week +0.99%) but negative next month (-6.88%), aligning with the current bearish technical setup.
Deal backdrop: The agreed all-stock acquisition by Huntington (close targeted Q1
can help put a floor under valuation and keep the stock anchored to deal terms.
Earnings strength (latest quarter): Q4 2025 results showed improved performance (news notes Non-GAAP EPS 0.85; revenue up ~17.2% per the news summary).
Shareholder return: Quarterly dividend declared at $0.3438/share; indicated yield noted as 6.63% in the news flow.
Limited upside due to merger: In most bank M&A setups, the target’s upside tends to be capped as the market prices in the exchange ratio and deal spread; this is not ideal for a fresh long-term entry if you want meaningful compounding upside.
Institutional pressure: Hedge funds are selling, with selling amount up ~1672.8% over the last quarter—clear negative positioning.
Technical weakness: Price below pivot with MACD deterioration increases odds of more downside before stabilization.
Analyst posture is neutral: Recent coverage is Market Perform, consistent with “not much juice left” ahead of the transaction close.
Latest reported quarter (2025/Q4): Revenue 491.3M (+14.67% YoY), Net Income 144.4M (+10.77% YoY), EPS 0.76 (+8.57% YoY). Growth is positive and consistent with an improving earnings profile. News also highlighted an improving net interest margin and capital ratios in the most recent update, which supports fundamental stability into the merger period.
Recent trend: Keefe Bruyette moved from more constructive to neutral after the Huntington acquisition was announced. On 2025-11-03 they downgraded to Market Perform (PT raised to 49 from 41 due to deal context). On 2026-01-26 they trimmed the price target slightly to 48 (from 49) and kept Market Perform. Wall Street pros view (in plain terms): Pros—fundamentals have improved and the deal provides visibility. Cons—neutral rating implies limited upside from here and the stock is mainly trading the deal rather than open-ended growth.
