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Despite strong financial metrics and optimistic guidance, the lack of clarity on NII outlook and the impact of the government shutdown on loan sales creates uncertainty. The potential for mid-single-digit loan growth and stable margins is balanced by the absence of a clear TCE target and the cautious approach to asset sensitivity. The market cap indicates moderate volatility, suggesting a neutral stock price reaction.
Net Income (Full Year 2025) $130.1 million or $2.89 per diluted share, on revenue of $446 million, up 9.7% year-on-year. Reasons for change: Strong profitability, loan growth of 8.9%, deposit growth of 2.5%, and positive operating leverage despite a challenging rate environment.
Net Income (4Q 2025) $34.5 million or $0.76 per diluted share, on revenue of $117 million. Reasons for change: Higher net interest income and solid profitability.
Revenue (Full Year 2025) $446 million, up 9.7% year-on-year. Reasons for change: Increased net interest income and loan growth.
Revenue (4Q 2025) $117 million, up 12% year-on-year and 1.1% from the prior quarter. Reasons for change: Higher net interest income.
Loan Growth (Full Year 2025) 8.9% year-on-year. Reasons for change: Strong origination activity and increased line utilization.
Deposit Growth (Full Year 2025) 2.5% year-on-year. Reasons for change: Disciplined deposit pricing and balance sheet management.
Net Interest Income (4Q 2025) $101 million, up 1.4% from the prior quarter and 10.7% for the full year. Reasons for change: Loan growth, lower deposit costs, and reduced interest expense from sub-debt payoff.
Net Interest Margin (4Q 2025) 4.35%, up 8 basis points from the prior quarter and 25 basis points year-on-year. Reasons for change: Decrease in cost of interest-bearing liabilities.
Noninterest Income (4Q 2025) $15.7 million, flat from the prior quarter. Reasons for change: Lower gain on sale of loans offset by higher swap income.
Allowance for Credit Losses (4Q 2025) $109 million, representing 1.45% of total loans, up 3 basis points from the prior quarter. Reasons for change: Reserve build and stable asset quality.
Capital Ratios (4Q 2025) CET1 at 12.33%, up 18 basis points from the prior quarter and 63 basis points year-on-year. TCE to TA ratio at 11.29%, up 168 basis points from the prior quarter. Reasons for change: Strong capital position and disciplined resource allocation.
Commercial Payments Business: Launched in April 2025, onboarded 6 customers, added $70 million in liability balances, and increased ACH volumes.
Market Position: Positioned as the largest local community bank and second largest local commercial bank in Chicago. Focused on organic growth and gaining market share in commercial businesses.
Financial Performance: Net income for 2025 was $130.1 million, up 9.7% year-on-year. Revenue reached $446 million. Loan growth was 8.9%, and deposits grew 2.5%.
Efficiency: Efficiency ratio at 50.3% and cost-to-asset ratio at 2.47% as of Q4 2025. Maintained positive operating leverage despite rate environment.
Capital Management: Repurchased 346,000 shares, authorized a new repurchase program for up to 5% of outstanding shares, and increased quarterly dividend by 20%.
Asset Growth: Prepared to cross the $10 billion asset threshold in 2026, with regulatory monitoring in place.
Integration: Completed integration of First Security within a single quarter.
Interest Rate Environment: Interest rates remained elevated longer than expected, creating challenges for profitability and financial planning.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Increased macroeconomic uncertainty impacted the operating environment, requiring adjustments to strategy and operations.
Regulatory and Policy Changes: Faster-than-expected regulatory and policy changes posed challenges to compliance and operational adjustments.
Deposit Decline: Deposits declined by 2.3% in the fourth quarter due to balance sheet management and seasonal outflows, potentially impacting liquidity.
Credit Costs: Credit costs increased to $9.7 million in the fourth quarter, driven by net charge-offs and reserve builds, indicating potential credit quality concerns.
Non-Performing Loans (NPLs): NPLs increased to 95 basis points, reflecting a rise in non-performing assets and potential credit risk.
Asset Threshold Transition: Preparation for crossing the $10 billion asset threshold in 2026 requires significant operational and regulatory readiness.
Loan Growth: Loan growth is expected to continue in the mid-single digits through 2026.
Net Interest Income: Net interest income is projected to range between $99 million and $100 million for the first quarter of 2026, based on a forward curve assuming a 50 basis point decline in the Fed funds rate.
Gain on Sale Forecast: Gain on sale of loans is forecasted to average $5.5 million per quarter in 2026, with lower expectations in Q1 due to seasonality.
Noninterest Expense: Quarterly noninterest expense is expected to trend between $58 million and $60 million in 2026.
Asset Threshold: The company expects to cross the $10 billion asset threshold in 2026 and is well-prepared for this milestone.
Commercial Payments Business: The commercial payments business launched in 2025 is expected to onboard more customers in 2026, with several already in the pipeline.
Quarterly Dividend Increase: Announced a 20% increase in the quarterly dividend, reflecting strong financial performance and confidence in delivering top quartile results.
Share Repurchase Program: Repurchased approximately 346,000 shares in the quarter. The Board authorized a new repurchase program allowing the buyback of up to 5% of outstanding shares.
Despite strong financial metrics and optimistic guidance, the lack of clarity on NII outlook and the impact of the government shutdown on loan sales creates uncertainty. The potential for mid-single-digit loan growth and stable margins is balanced by the absence of a clear TCE target and the cautious approach to asset sensitivity. The market cap indicates moderate volatility, suggesting a neutral stock price reaction.
The earnings call reveals a mix of positive and negative indicators. While there is optimism around loan growth, NII, and strategic positioning, uncertainties about government shutdown impacts, competitive pressures, and unclear management responses temper sentiment. The market cap suggests moderate sensitivity to these mixed signals, aligning with a neutral outlook.
The earnings call revealed strong financial health with upgraded credit ratings, disciplined expense management, and a sustainable increase in earnings power. Despite some increases in non-performing loans, management remains confident in addressing credit issues. The Q&A highlighted a healthy loan growth pipeline, capital flexibility, and strategic focus on organic growth and share buybacks. These factors suggest a positive outlook, likely leading to a stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks, particularly given the company's small-cap status.
The earnings call indicates strong financial performance with increased net income, EPS, and revenue, alongside improved credit quality and capital ratios. Despite some uncertainties in client behavior and market competition, the dividend increase and share repurchases suggest confidence in future performance. The Q&A section reveals optimism about loan growth and M&A opportunities, despite market volatility. Overall, the positive financial metrics and strategic initiatives outweigh the risks, suggesting a positive stock price movement in the coming weeks.
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