Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: BX is in a confirmed short-term downtrend (bearish MAs + expanding negative MACD), and options positioning is defensively bearish.
While the stock is extremely oversold near first support (~134), that mainly argues for a potential bounce trade—not a high-confidence “buy now” setup without a reversal signal.
Near-term base case: elevated odds of more chop/down before a sustainable turn; better to wait for stabilization (bullish MACD turn or reclaim of key levels).
Momentum: MACD histogram at -2.316 and expanding lower => sellers still in control.
RSI: RSI_6 at 9.939 = extremely oversold (conditions are stretched and bounce risk is rising, but oversold alone is not a buy trigger).
Key levels: Price ~133.9 is sitting right on S1 (134.15). A clean break risks a move toward S2 (127.548). Upside reversal levels to watch: Pivot 144.837, then R1 155.524.
Pattern-based forward stats (similar candlesticks): ~50% chance of -3.54% next day; ~+0.19% next week; ~+6.58% next month (skewed toward weak immediate follow-through).
Practical read: This looks like “downtrend + oversold.” A tradable bounce is possible, but trend-following signals still point down.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Bearish/defensive. Put open interest exceeds calls (OI PCR 1.62), and put volume also exceeds call volume (Vol PCR 1.15).
Positioning/flow: Today’s options volume is very elevated vs 30-day average (222.4%), suggesting heightened attention/hedging around the recent earnings/news cycle.
Volatility: IV ~35.99% with IV percentile ~70.12 => options are relatively expensive vs much of the past year, consistent with uncertainty and demand for protection.
Interpretation: The options market is leaning toward protection/downside bias, not signaling broad “risk-on” appetite.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
Fundamentals: 2025/Q4 results showed strong YoY growth (revenue, net income, EPS all ~+41–44% YoY).
Activity backdrop: Management commentary suggests an accelerating global deal cycle and higher IPO issuance (supports future realizations/performance fees if it continues).
Corporate actions: Considering sale of Interplex ICT unit (potential >$1B valuation) could be value-accretive and highlight monetization optionality.
Sector tailwind (if rates/cof stabilize): Improved transaction markets typically benefit alternative managers’ fundraising and realizations.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
and very high volume point to ongoing hedging demand.
Net income: 1.015B, +44.23% YoY (profitability scaled with revenue).
EPS: 1.30, +41.30% YoY (solid earnings momentum).
Takeaway: Fundamentals are strong, but the market is currently discounting forward uncertainty (notably around real estate fees and 2026 expectations).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Predominantly Neutral/Equal Weight ratings with multiple price target cuts after Q4.
Notable changes:
Piper Sandler: Neutral, PT cut to 158 from 168 (concern about 2026 expectations driving estimates lower).
UBS: Neutral, PT slightly cut to 171 from 172.
Barclays: Equal Weight, PT cut to 164 from 171 (real estate management fee softness; transaction ramp taking longer).
BofA: Buy maintained but PT cut sharply to 158 from 188 (beat noted, but questions remain on real estate franchise; lower performance revenue assumptions).
Wall Street “pros”: Strong fundraising/deployments/realizations; improving deal cycle could reaccelerate earnings power.
Wall Street “cons”: Real estate fee/return mixed signals; 2026 visibility concerns; targets drifting down.
Influential/politician activity (Congress, last 90 days): 8 trades total with 4 buys and 4 sells (balanced), suggesting no strong directional conviction from that cohort.
Wall Street analysts forecast BX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BX is 176.6 USD with a low forecast of 166 USD and a high forecast of 205 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BX is 176.6 USD with a low forecast of 166 USD and a high forecast of 205 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 126.830
Low
166
Averages
176.6
High
205
Current: 126.830
Low
166
Averages
176.6
High
205
Piper Sandler
Neutral
downgrade
$168 -> $158
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$168 -> $158
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Blackstone to $158 from $168 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes Blackstone posted a solid headline beat, but shares traded down 3% following its call. Piper believes weakness was driven by 2026 expectations that will likely drive Street estimates lower over the near-term.
UBS
Neutral
downgrade
$172 -> $171
2026-01-30
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$172 -> $171
2026-01-30
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
UBS lowered the firm's price target on Blackstone to $171 from $172 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following the Q4 earnings report.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for BX
