Buy now for an oversold rebound setup: RSI(6) ~13 is extremely oversold while price is sitting near key support (S1 ~20.79) with pre-market ~20.63.
Positioning is supportive: hedge funds are aggressively buying (+684% QoQ), and options open-interest skew is bullish (puts relatively light).
Base case: expect a mean-reversion bounce back toward the pivot zone (~23.44) if support holds; near-term pattern stats also point to a stronger 1-month drift (+5.89%).
Main reason this is not a “slam dunk” trend buy: moving averages + MACD remain bearish, so this is a rebound trade, not confirmed trend reversal.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.622 and negatively expanding = downside momentum still active.
Oversold: RSI_6 = 13.192 = extremely oversold, often associated with sharp snap-back bounces.
Levels:
Support: S1 20.789 (price ~20.63 is right at/just below), then S2 19.153.
Resistance/targets: Pivot 23.439, then R1 26.088.
Pattern-based outlook (provided): ~60% chance of ~-0.15% next day, +0.21% next week, +5.89% next month (tilts toward rebound over weeks, not necessarily immediate).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment via OI: Put/Call OI ratio 0.27 = call-heavy positioning (generally bullish / less demand for protection).
Sentiment via volume: Put/Call volume ratio 1.0 = neutral flow on the day.
Volatility: IV(30d) 73.52 vs HV 60.27 with IV percentile 89.56 = options pricing in elevated uncertainty; options are expensive.
Activity: Today’s volume very low (4 contracts), but open interest is meaningfully larger (2,145), implying positioning matters more than today’s flow.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
on 2026-02-26 (After Hours) with EPS est. 0.17 could catalyze a rebound if results/guide stabilize sentiment.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical damage: Strong bearish moving-average stack + worsening MACD suggests rallies may face selling pressure until trend improves.
Analyst caution: Multiple targets were cut (notably JPMorgan), reflecting a more challenging P&C backdrop and tempered expectations.
Fundamental growth: Revenue growth is modest (low single-digit), and profitability is still negative (net loss), limiting “quality bid” support in risk-off tapes.
No insider tailwind: Insiders are neutral (no notable supportive buying trend recently).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $93.25M, +1.74% YoY (slow growth).
Net income: -$18.73M, improved +123.55% YoY (loss narrowing meaningfully).
EPS: -0.27, improved +107.69% YoY (still negative, but trend improving).
Takeaway: top-line is steady but not accelerating; the key positive is material improvement in losses (operating trajectory improving, but not yet profitable).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent tone: mixed-to-cautious; valuation is increasingly cited as a floor, but sector fundamentals seen as more challenging.
Wall Street analysts forecast BWIN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BWIN is 32.4 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 47 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BWIN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BWIN is 32.4 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 47 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 18.760
Low
25
Averages
32.4
High
47
Current: 18.760
Low
25
Averages
32.4
High
47
JPMorgan
Neutral
downgrade
$33 -> $28
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$33 -> $28
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Baldwin Group to $28 from $33 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the property and casualty insurance sector as part of its 2026 outlook. While fundamentals in the P&C sector "are getting more challenging," pricing, margin, and growth headwinds "seem better reflected in sentiment and valuation levels," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Wells Fargo
Elyse Greenspan
Underweight -> Equal Weight
upgrade
$25
2025-12-12
Reason
Wells Fargo
Elyse Greenspan
Price Target
$25
2025-12-12
upgrade
Underweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo analyst Elyse Greenspan upgraded Baldwin Group to Equal Weight from Underweight with an unchanged price target of $25. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade following the stock's recent underperformance. Baldwins' current valuation "should provide a floor," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for BWIN
