Should I Buy BWB? BWB 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Bridgewater Bancshares Inc (BWB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

19.970

1 Day change

0.86%

52 Week Range

20.300

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: momentum is extended (RSI6 ~72) and the short-horizon pattern stats lean bearish (next day/week/month expected drift lower).
Price is sitting just above the pivot (~~19.04) with nearby resistance at ~19.85; risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback rather than chasing strength in pre-market (~~19.10).
Fundamentals/news are genuinely improving (NIM expansion, strong YoY growth), so this is more of a timing “no” than a business “no.”
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) indicates an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.117 and expanding supports bullish momentum, but RSI_6 at ~72 suggests the move is getting stretched/overheated short-term.
Key levels: Pivot 19.035 (price hovering near it). Resistance R1 19.854 then R2 20.361; Support S1 18.216 then S2 17.709.
Near-term skew: Pattern-based outlook shows ~60% chance of modest declines (-1.32% next day, -2.03% next week, -6.53% next month), arguing against buying immediately into strength.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put/Call OI ratio 0.42 (call-heavy) = generally bullish/less hedging pressure.
Activity: Very thin volume (only 1 contract; call volume 0), so sentiment signal is weak despite bullish OI skew.
Volatility: IV 30d ~93% vs historical vol ~35% (IV elevated); IV percentile ~82 suggests options are priced rich (market expects bigger moves).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Non-interest income +32% YoY (includes swap fee income), supporting earnings diversification.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Short-term technical/timing risk: RSI stretched and price near resistance; pattern stats point to near-term drawdown odds.
- Options liquidity is extremely low, limiting how much confidence you can place in options-derived sentiment.
- Balance-sheet/asset-mix concern flagged by analysts: elevated CRE concentration and low tangible common equity ratio may cap upside in some market regimes.
- Flows: Hedge funds and insiders show neutral activity (no strong “smart money” confirmation recently).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4 showed strong acceleration.
Revenue: 35.733M, +32.14% YoY.
Net income: 12.320M, +71.35% YoY.
EPS: 0.43, +65.38% YoY.
Read-through: Growth is being driven by balance-sheet expansion + improving NIM and higher fee income—fundamentals are trending in the right direction.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Ratings/targets have tilted more constructive.
2026-01-29: Piper Sandler Overweight, PT raised to $23 (from $21) on strong Q4 and better NII/NIM/balance-sheet growth.
2025-12-09: Stephens initiated Equal Weight, PT $20, citing benefit from lower rates/steeper curve but warning about CRE concentration and low tangible common equity.
Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros = improving profitability (NIM), growth in loans/deposits, fee income lift; Cons = CRE concentration + capital/tangible equity constraints that may limit multiple expansion.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast BWB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BWB is 21 USD with a low forecast of 21 USD and a high forecast of 21 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 19.800

Low

Averages

High

Current: 19.800

Low

Averages

High

Piper Sandler

Overweight

maintain

$21 -> $23

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

Reason

Piper Sandler

Price Target

$21 -> $23

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Bridgewater Bancshares to $23 from $21 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm sees likely additional outperformance following strong Q4 results that included 8% PPNR upside driven by stronger net interest income with both greater net interest margin expansion and balance sheet growth.

Stephens

Equal Weight

initiated

$20

2025-12-09

Reason

Stephens

Price Target

$20

2025-12-09

initiated

Equal Weight

Reason

Stephens initiated coverage of Bridgewater Bancshares with an Equal Weight rating and $20 price target. The firm believes the bank is well positioned for lower interest rates and a steepening yield curve in the short term. However, Bridgewater's "elevated" commercial real estate concentration ratio and peer-low tangible common equity ratio may limit the stock's upside potential, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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BWB Should I Buy

BWB Should I Buy

Should You Buy Bridgewater Bancshares Inc (BWB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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