Should I Buy BTU? BTU 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

36.920

1 Day change

7.83%

52 Week Range

39.950

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: momentum is still bearish (negative, expanding MACD) and price is sitting right at a key pivot (~36.63), meaning upside follow-through is not confirmed.
Near-term catalyst risk is high with earnings on 2026-02-05 (pre-market); with an impatient profile, buying immediately ahead of earnings is not attractive given recent weak quarterly fundamentals.
Mixed positioning: hedge funds are accumulating, but insiders are selling heavily—this combination does not support an aggressive “buy now” call.
Net: stay on the sidelines (hold/avoid new buys) until price clears resistance (~39.05) with improving momentum or earnings de-risks the thesis.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.409 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum remains in control.
RSI (6): 47.11 (neutral) → no oversold bounce signal; supports a “wait for confirmation” stance rather than chasing.
Moving averages: converging → transition/indecision phase; breakout confirmation is needed.
Key levels: Pivot 36.627 (current pre-market ~36.61 is essentially at pivot).
- Resistance: R1 39.045, R2 40.539 (needs a clean break above ~39 to turn setup more bullish).
- Support: S1 34.209, S2 32.715 (failure to hold ~34.2 increases downside risk).
Pattern-based short-horizon odds: modeled path suggests only modest next-day upside (+1.75% probability 50%), but slightly negative bias over 1-week (-0.5%) and 1-month (-0.86%).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (Open Interest): Put/Call OI ratio 0.62 → more call OI than puts (structurally bullish/less hedged).
Flow (Volume): Put/Call volume ratio 1.16 → puts outweigh calls in today’s trading flow (short-term caution/hedging demand).
Volatility: 30D IV 66.03 vs HV 64.37; IV percentile 78.8 → options are priced rich, consistent with elevated event risk (earnings imminently) and reducing the attractiveness of “buying right now” without confirmation.
Liquidity/Activity: today’s volume 3,967; volume vs 30D avg 45.61 (as provided) → notable activity but not a clear one-way signal given mixed PCRs.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-05 (pre-market) could re-rate the stock if coal pricing/realizations and guidance surprise positively.
- Analyst support: Jefferies reiterates Buy and raised PT to $44 (model updated for Q4 coal prices).
- Institutional behavior: hedge funds are buying; reported buying amount up ~160.84% QoQ.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Bearish technical momentum: MACD negative and worsening; price has not confirmed a breakout above resistance (~39).
- Insider signal: insiders are selling; selling amount up ~156.81% over the last month.
- Fundamentals recently deteriorated (latest quarter showed losses and margin compression), increasing downside sensitivity if earnings disappoint.
- No supportive near-term news flow in the past week to offset the technical/fundamental backdrop.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $1.012B, down -6.98% YoY → top-line contraction.
Net income: -$70.1M, down -169.20% YoY → swung deeper into loss.
EPS: -$0.58, down -180.56% YoY → significant earnings deterioration.
Gross margin: 1.73, down -87.77% YoY → major profitability compression.
Overall: the most recent quarter shows weakening growth/profitability trends heading into the upcoming earnings event.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating/target trend: targets were raised by both firms, but ratings are mixed.
- 2026-01-20: Jefferies raised PT to $44 from $42; kept Buy.
- 2025-12-12: UBS raised PT to $29 from $27; kept Neutral.
Wall Street pros (bull case): coal price/realization sensitivity can drive sharp upside; at least one major firm sees meaningful upside (Jefferies $44).
Wall Street cons (bear case): disagreement on fair value (UBS Neutral with $29) implies limited upside or higher risk; recent financial deterioration and insider selling weaken conviction for buying immediately.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast BTU stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BTU is 31.67 USD with a low forecast of 29 USD and a high forecast of 34 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 34.240

Low

Averages

31.67

High

Current: 34.240

Low

Averages

31.67

High

UBS

Neutral

maintain

$33

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$33

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

UBS raised the firm's price target on Peabody to $33 from $32.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Peabody's results reiterate an improving business and outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Benchmark

NULL -> Buy

upgrade

$32 -> $40

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Benchmark

Price Target

$32 -> $40

2026-02-06

New

upgrade

NULL -> Buy

Reason

Benchmark raised the firm's price target on Peabody to $40 from $32 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Shareholder returns are expected to ramp back up, the analyst notes following the company's Q4 report.

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BTU Should I Buy

BTU Should I Buy

Should You Buy Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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