Not a good buy right now: trend is decisively bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and there is no Intellectia buy signal to justify chasing a bounce.
Price is sitting right on support (S1 ~0.941) in pre-market (0.9425). A short technical bounce is possible, but the setup is still counter-trend and event/catalyst support is absent.
Options positioning is extremely call-heavy (very low put/call ratios), which can help a squeeze/bounce, but fundamentals + analyst revisions are trending the wrong way (regulatory friction, weaker outlook).
Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) → rallies are likely to face selling pressure.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0197) but contracting → downside momentum is easing, consistent with a potential dead-cat bounce.
RSI: RSI_6 ~22.47 indicates oversold conditions → supports a short-term rebound case, but does not reverse the primary downtrend by itself.
Key levels: Immediate support at S1 ~0.941 (price ~0.9425 pre-market). If it breaks, next support is S2 ~0.846. Upside resistance zones: Pivot ~1.096 then R1 ~1.251.
Probabilistic pattern read: Similar-pattern projection skews slightly negative over 1W/1M (-1.38% / -3.74%), consistent with a weak tape.
Activity: Today’s volume 298 with a very large spike vs 30-day average (today vs avg ~31.67) → heightened near-term attention.
Volatility: IV is very high (30D IV ~97.9%) but below recent averages (5D/10D IV averages higher) → volatility is elevated yet cooling.
Interpretation: Options flow supports bounce potential, but it’s not enough to override the prevailing bearish trend + negative revisions without a catalyst.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
right at key support (~0.
can trigger a reflex bounce.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Clear bearish trend (MA stack bearish) suggests rallies may fail until structure improves.
Profitability: Net income 5,544,000 (down -690.42% YoY) and EPS 0.08 (down -260% YoY) → sharp earnings compression vs prior year.
Margins: Gross margin 17.37% (up 3.70% YoY) → some operational improvement, but not translating into bottom-line growth yet.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend is negative (price targets cut and one downgrade) following Q3 and weaker Q4 outlook.
2025-11-14 Noble Capital: Maintains Outperform but cuts PT to $6 (from $9) citing regulatory friction and redeployments affecting estimates.
2025-11-14 B. Riley: Downgrades to Neutral from Buy; PT cut to $2.30 (from $6) due to downside Q4 guidance (seasonality + regulation limits + compliance impacts).
Wall Street pro view (pros): Q3 execution/revenue strength and improving gross margin.
Wall Street con view (cons): Near-term regulatory/compliance headwinds and reduced guidance translate into lower confidence and lower targets.
Wall Street analysts forecast BTM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BTM is 3.93 USD with a low forecast of 2.3 USD and a high forecast of 6 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BTM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BTM is 3.93 USD with a low forecast of 2.3 USD and a high forecast of 6 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 0.780
Low
2.3
Averages
3.93
High
6
Current: 0.780
Low
2.3
Averages
3.93
High
6
Noble Capital
Outperform
to
NULL
downgrade
$9 -> $6
AI Analysis
2025-11-14
Reason
Noble Capital
Price Target
$9 -> $6
AI Analysis
2025-11-14
downgrade
Outperform
to
NULL
Reason
Noble Capital lowered the firm's price target on Bitcoin Depot to $6 from $9 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Q3 results exceed expectations, but the firm is lowering its Q4 estimates and revising 2026 estimates to account for near-term regulatory friction and kiosk redeployments, the analyst tells investors.
B. Riley
Hal Goetsch
Buy -> Neutral
downgrade
$6
2025-11-14
Reason
B. Riley
Hal Goetsch
Price Target
$6
2025-11-14
downgrade
Buy -> Neutral
Reason
B. Riley analyst Hal Goetsch downgraded Bitcoin Depot to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $2.30, down from $6. The company's Q3 results were "solid" but came with downside guidance for Q4, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Bitcoin Depot cited seasonality, changes to state regulations that limit transaction sizes, and its own compliance efforts that are expected to impact transaction sizes and volumes for the weaker than expected outlook.
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