Not a good buy right now at 6.96 pre-market: the technical setup is mildly bullish, but near-term fundamentals/news flow are mixed (Q4 revenue down; big YoY EPS/revenue drop expectation was a key narrative).
Upside exists toward the 7.23 resistance, but without Intellectia entry signals and with a fresh analyst downgrade, the risk/reward is not compelling for an impatient buyer.
Pattern-probability signal: Similar-pattern stats point to modest positive drift (≈+1.18% next day, +1.99% next week), but not strong enough alone to justify an aggressive chase.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Open interest put/call ratio 0.29 (put-light) → generally bullish/low-hedge tone.
Activity: Volume is extremely thin (4 calls, 0 puts) → sentiment read is low-confidence due to illiquidity.
Volatility: 30D IV ~75% vs historical vol ~25% → options are pricing elevated event/risk; IV has been trending down vs 5D/10D averages, suggesting post-event vol compression may be underway.
Takeaway: Options skew looks bullish, but the lack of volume + elevated IV argues for caution in interpreting it as a strong “buy now” signal.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
Technical trend remains constructive (bullish MA alignment; price above pivot).
Parent Banco Santander reported FY2025 attributable profit up ~12% YoY (supports broader group strength narrative).
Acquisition headline (Webster Financial) could be seen as strategic expansion (sentiment tailwind for the group, though not directly BSBR-specific).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
News flow on BSBR: Q4 revenue reported down ~1.9% YoY, and the pre-earnings narrative highlighted very large expected YoY declines in EPS/revenue—fundamental momentum looks challenged.
Analyst action: Recent downgrade to Market Perform citing “unfavorable valuation asymmetries” and reduced estimates—caps enthusiasm.
Elevated implied volatility (IV far above realized) implies the market is still pricing meaningful uncertainty.
No hedge fund/insider accumulation signals; no politician/congress trading data to corroborate bullish conviction.
EPS: 0.09, ~flat YoY → per-share growth not clearly accelerating.
Near-term update from news: Q4 revenue was reported down YoY (adds a caution flag versus the Q3 modest improvements).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Downgrade on 2025-11-19 by Itau BBA from Outperform to Market Perform.
Price targets referenced: R$22 and R$32 (two entries reported same day); rationale was reduced estimates and “unfavorable valuation asymmetries.”
Wall Street-style pros: improving profitability in prior quarter (net income up YoY), constructive technical trend, and supportive options OI skew.
Wall Street-style cons: downgrade/reset in expectations, recent Q4 YoY revenue decline, and uncertainty still priced via elevated IV.
Wall Street analysts forecast BSBR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BSBR is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Analyst Rating
0
Wall Street analysts forecast BSBR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BSBR is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Buy
Hold
Sell
0
Current: 6.510
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
0
Current: 6.510
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
Itau BBA
Pedro Leduc
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
R$22
AI Analysis
2025-11-19
Reason
Itau BBA
Pedro Leduc
Price Target
R$22
AI Analysis
2025-11-19
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Itau BBA analyst Pedro Leduc downgraded Santander Brasil to Market Perform from Outperform with a R$22 price target. The firm cites its reduced estimates and "unfavorable valuation asymmetries" for the downgrade.
Itau BBA
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
R$32
2025-11-19
Reason
Itau BBA
Price Target
R$32
2025-11-19
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Itau BBA downgraded Santander Brasil to Market Perform from Outperform with a R$32 price target. The firm cites its reduced estimates and "unfavorable valuation asymmetries" for the downgrade.
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