Should I Buy BRLT? BRLT 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Brilliant Earth Group Inc (BRLT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

1.500

1 Day change

1.35%

52 Week Range

3.100

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: trend and positioning data are still bearish, and there are no Intellectia buy signals to override that.
Price (~1.53 pre-market, -1.92%) is sitting on/near key support (S1 1.532). A short bounce is possible, but the dominant trend remains down.
Hedge funds are aggressively selling (+726% QoQ selling), which is a meaningful headwind for near-term follow-through.
Pattern-based forward odds provided are not compelling for an immediate entry (70% chance of -0.4% next day).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), implying a persistent downtrend.
MACD: Histogram is negative (-0.00142) and negatively expanding → downside momentum is strengthening rather than stabilizing.
RSI(6): 35.73 (weak/near-oversold but not a clean reversal signal). This can support a dead-cat bounce, but it’s not confirmation.
Key levels: Pivot 1.593 overhead; Support S1 1.532 (being tested pre-market) then S2 1.494. Resistance R1 1.654 then R2 1.692.
Near-term statistical path (from similar candlestick patterns): ~70% chance of -0.4% next day; +3.57% next week; +7.22% next month (suggests any edge is more “later” than “right now”).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put/Call OI ratio 0.09 is extremely call-heavy, implying bullish/speculative positioning or heavy call overwriting activity; either way, it’s not fear-dominant.
Volume: Put/call volume ratio 0.0 (puts essentially absent today) with total options volume (74) running ~211% of the 30-day average → one-sided sentiment/flow.
Volatility: 30D IV ~144.5% vs HV ~119.4% (IV > HV) → options are pricing large moves; IV percentile ~43 and IV rank ~21 suggest IV is elevated but not at extreme historical peaks.
Takeaway: Options flow looks bullish, but it’s occurring against a bearish technical backdrop—often more consistent with short-covering/speculation than a confirmed trend reversal.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

and possibly R1 (~1.65).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Strong bearish technical structure (bearish MA stack + weakening MACD) increases risk that support breaks (next supports: ~1.49).
- Hedge funds are selling aggressively (selling amount up ~726% QoQ), a notable negative sentiment/positioning indicator.
- Profitability quality is still weak (net income negative; margin pressure), which can limit multiple expansion even if revenue grows.
- No event-driven upside catalyst beyond showroom PR; nothing indicating a near-term earnings/strategic inflection in the provided data.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 110.252M, +10.39% YoY (solid top-line growth).
Net income: -0.107M, down -24.11% YoY (still loss-making; profitability not improving).
EPS: -0.01 (flat vs prior; still negative).
Gross margin: 57.55%, down -5.42% YoY (margin compression is a key concern even with revenue growth).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating/price target change data was provided, so recent Wall Street trend cannot be verified from the dataset.
Typical Wall St. pros (given the data): revenue growth and brand/retail expansion initiatives could support a turnaround narrative.
Typical Wall St. cons (given the data): ongoing losses and declining gross margin reduce confidence in near-term earnings leverage; plus current technical trend is bearish, which can keep targets cautious.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast BRLT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BRLT is 2.53 USD with a low forecast of 2 USD and a high forecast of 3 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 1.480

Low

Averages

2.53

High

Current: 1.480

Low

Averages

2.53

High

TD Cowen

Hold

maintain

AI Analysis

2025-08-08

Reason

TD Cowen

Price Target

AI Analysis

2025-08-08

maintain

Hold

Reason

TD Cowen raised the firm's price target on Brilliant Earth to $2.20 from $2 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm said they posted solid sales led by units and brand relevance but the bridal is still recovering.

Telsey Advisory Group

Dana Telsey

Hold

Maintains

2025-03-13

Reason

Telsey Advisory Group

Dana Telsey

Price Target

2025-03-13

Maintains

Hold

Reason

BRLT Should I Buy

BRLT Should I Buy

Should You Buy Brilliant Earth Group Inc (BRLT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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