Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: trend structure is still bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) and the pattern-based forecast skew is negative over 1W/1M.
No Intellectia buy signals today (AI Stock Picker/SwingMax), so there’s no strong timing edge for an immediate entry.
While Wall Street targets imply material upside, near-term setup looks more vulnerable into the 2/24 earnings event; better to wait than chase pre-market around the pivot.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.063 and expanding (early improvement), but RSI_6 ~50.96 is neutral—momentum is not strong enough to override the bearish MA trend.
Quant/Pattern read: Similar-pattern stats suggest ~-4.46% next week and ~-6.15% next month bias.
Event catalyst: Q4 2025 earnings on 2026-02-24 (pre-market) with Street EPS est. ~0.46; could re-rate the stock if underwriting/investment income trends beat expectations.
Company is actively engaging investors (AIFA Conference, RBC Global Financial Institutions Conference), which can support visibility.
Underlying business momentum (specialty insurance) remains positioned for ROE/book value growth per bullish analysts.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
can create a “wait-and-see” tape and downside if pricing/reserving commentary disappoints.
Recent rating tone: Mostly constructive (Outperform/Overweight) with one notable Equal Weight; price targets have been trimmed slightly by some firms but remain well above the current ~25 level.
Wall Street pros: Better underwriting margin/investment income assumptions; casualty lines seeing solid rate increases; favorable weather/cat-loss moderation could help near-term results.
Wall Street cons: Property pricing declining; sector cycle potentially softening; possible ROE compression and limited sector performance if pricing/reserving worsen.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available.
Wall Street analysts forecast BOW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BOW is 34 USD with a low forecast of 29 USD and a high forecast of 40 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BOW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BOW is 34 USD with a low forecast of 29 USD and a high forecast of 40 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 25.180
Low
29
Averages
34
High
40
Current: 25.180
Low
29
Averages
34
High
40
Citizens
Outperform
to
NULL
downgrade
$40 -> $38
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
Citizens
Price Target
$40 -> $38
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Outperform
to
NULL
Reason
Citizens lowered the firm's price target on Bowhead Specialty to $38 from $40 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Fourth quarter results are expected to reflect lighter catastrophe losses and limited mark-to-market impacts, with attention focused on pricing trends amid weakness in property lines, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While property pricing is declining, returns remain strong and casualty lines continue to see solid rate increases, pointing to a market in transition rather than broadly soft, the firm says.
Keefe Bruyette
Meyer Shields
Outperform
to
Outperform
downgrade
$38 -> $36
2026-01-06
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Meyer Shields
Price Target
$38 -> $36
2026-01-06
downgrade
Outperform
to
Outperform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette analyst Meyer Shields lowered the firm's price target on Bowhead Specialty to $36 from $38 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for BOW
