Not a good buy right now: trend is still decisively bearish (downtrend + negative momentum), and there is no proprietary buy signal to override it.
Options positioning is call-heavy (bullish tilt), but it’s not strong enough to offset weak price structure and deteriorating fundamentals.
With earnings (QDEC 2025) coming on 2026-02-26, the near-term setup is more headline-risk than clean upside; for an impatient buyer, the risk/reward is unfavorable at $3.31 pre-market.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bearish. MACD histogram is negative (-0.0292) and expanding lower, signaling increasing downside momentum.
Moving averages: Bearish stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), consistent with an entrenched downtrend.
RSI: RSI(6) ~25.84 (effectively oversold). This can produce short bounces, but oversold is not a buy signal by itself in a strong downtrend.
Levels: Price $3.31 is near S1 (~3.213). If S1 fails, next support is ~3.025 (S2). Overhead resistance/pivot is ~3.519, then ~3.825 (R1).
Sentiment: Skewed bullish/“risk-on” (low put/call ratios indicate more call interest and call volume than puts).
Volatility: High—30D IV ~75.39 vs historical vol ~84.19; IV percentile ~66.8 suggests options are pricing meaningful moves.
Activity: Today’s option volume (788) looks light vs recent averages (indicator shows ~28.66% vs 30D avg), so the bullish put/call read may not be backed by heavy flow.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
can create short-lived rebound attempts.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Price action remains in a confirmed downtrend; momentum (MACD) is still worsening, increasing odds of support breaks.
Fundamental pressure: Recent narrative from analysts points to continued payer declines and uncertain timing for a return to growth.
Cybersecurity headlines across the space (including Match user data affected) can weigh on user trust and investor confidence near-term.
Event risk ahead: Earnings on 2026-02-26 (After Hours) can drive large moves given elevated IV and depressed sentiment.
Influential/political flows: No recent congress trading data available; hedge fund/insider trading trends are neutral (no supportive accumulation signal).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $246.16M, down ~10.03% YoY (top-line contraction).
Profitability: Net income down sharply (reported -106.09% YoY) and EPS down ~104.70% YoY to $0.24, indicating earnings power deterioration.
Margin: Gross margin improved to ~69.94% (+8.91% YoY), suggesting cost/mix improvements, but not enough to offset revenue/payer pressure.
Overall read: Improving gross margin is a positive, but the dominant trend is weakening growth and earnings—typically not supportive of durable upside rallies.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend: Broadly negative—multiple firms cut price targets repeatedly from Nov 2025 through Jan 2026; ratings cluster around Hold/Neutral, with at least one Underperform.
Notable calls: BofA maintains Underperform (PT ~$3.50). RBC downgraded to Sector Perform and flagged “value trap” risk. Citi/Deutsche/Jefferies/UBS/Susquehanna largely stay Neutral/Hold while cutting PTs.
Wall Street pros/cons summary:
Pros: Some belief that strategy refinements and a “quality-first” product revamp could stabilize engagement over time.
Cons (dominant): Low confidence in timing of re-acceleration, payer declines expected to persist, reduced revenue visibility from marketing pullback/user clean-up, and concern that the category faces secular headwinds.
Bottom line from analysts: The Street is mostly in “wait-and-see” mode with shrinking targets—this is not supportive of an impatient buy today.
Wall Street analysts forecast BMBL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BMBL is 4.48 USD with a low forecast of 3.5 USD and a high forecast of 5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BMBL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BMBL is 4.48 USD with a low forecast of 3.5 USD and a high forecast of 5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
10 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 3.090
Low
3.5
Averages
4.48
High
5
Current: 3.090
Low
3.5
Averages
4.48
High
5
Deutsche Bank
Benjamin Black
Hold
downgrade
$4
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
Reason
Deutsche Bank
Benjamin Black
Price Target
$4
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
downgrade
Hold
Reason
Deutsche Bank analyst Benjamin Black lowered the firm's price target on Bumble to $4 from $4.50 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares.
Citi
Neutral
downgrade
2025-12-22
Reason
Citi
Price Target
2025-12-22
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Citi lowered the firm's price target on Bumble to $3.80 from $5.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares as part of its 2026 outlook for the North America internet group. Bumble's efforts to turn around the core business will likely drive payer declines in Q4, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees this trend continuing in 2026.
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