Should I Buy BLZE? BLZE 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Backblaze Inc (BLZE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

4.100

1 Day change

2.50%

52 Week Range

10.860

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: price is in a confirmed downtrend (bearish MAs + worsening MACD), and the near-term pattern study skews negative over the next week.
The stock is deeply oversold (RSI_6 ~~17) and sitting near support (~~4.30), so a short bounce is possible, but there is no proprietary buy signal and momentum is still deteriorating.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
With an impatient profile (not waiting for confirmation), the current setup is more likely to chop or break support than deliver a clean upside move today.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) indicates sustained downside pressure.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0399 and negatively expanding = downside momentum is strengthening, not stabilizing.
Oscillators: RSI_6 at 17.396 = extremely oversold (bounce risk), but oversold alone is not a buy trigger while MACD worsens.
Key levels:
- Support: S1 4.301 (price ~4.335 is hovering just above it), then S2 4.095.
- Resistance: Pivot 4.634, then R1 4.967.
Pattern-based forward view: 40% chance of -1.47% next day, -5.56% next week, +2.9% next month (near-term skew still negative).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Extremely call-skewed open interest (P/C OI 0.05) and call-heavy volume (P/C vol 0.08) = bullish/speculative positioning.
Activity: Today’s option volume vs 30-day average is elevated (24.37x), suggesting a sentiment/event bid.
Volatility: IV 30d ~96.89 with IV percentile ~89.6 = options are expensive; market is pricing big moves.
Takeaway: Options market is bullish, but with very high IV it can also reflect “lottery-ticket” calls rather than informed conviction; it does not offset the bearish price trend on its own.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- News flow is constructive: Q4 commentary highlights AI traffic surge and low-latency demand around US-East compute hubs (supports storage/egress demand narrative).
- Product/PR tailwind: B2 Overdrive recognition (Tech Innovation Awards finalist) and performance/cost positioning (up to 1Tbps, fewer hidden fees) can help pipeline and visibility.
- Upcoming event: Earnings on 2026-02-19 (pre-market) can reset the narrative if guidance/improving profitability surprises.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Price action remains decisively bearish (bearish moving averages + expanding negative MACD), increasing odds of support failure.
- Near-term quant/pattern read is weak (next-week expectation negative).
- Earnings risk: market expects EPS around -0.14 for QDEC 2025; any miss or weak guidance can pressure the stock further.
- Analysts are still “Buy” but have recently cut price targets (signals tempered growth expectations).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 37.162M, +14.03% YoY (healthy top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income -3.778M, down -70.38% YoY; EPS -0.07, down -75.86% YoY (losses widened).
Efficiency: Gross margin 62.08%, +13.66% YoY (a clear positive), but not yet translating into bottom-line improvement.
Overall: Growth is solid and margins improved, but the earnings trend is currently moving the wrong way.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent actions (2025-11-07):
- Lake Street: Maintained Buy, price target cut $11 → $10 (lower out-year revenue view; assumes lower 2026 growth).
- B. Riley: Maintained Buy, price target cut $11 → $9.
Wall Street pros: still constructive on the business/product story (Buy ratings maintained).
Wall Street cons: valuation/upside expectations were reduced via price target cuts, implying less confidence in the growth trajectory near-to-medium term.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders show neutral activity (no notable recent accumulation).

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast BLZE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BLZE is 9.5 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 11 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 4.000

Low

Averages

9.5

High

Current: 4.000

Low

Averages

9.5

High

Lake Street

Eric Martinuzzi

Buy

downgrade

$11 -> $10

AI Analysis

2025-11-07

Reason

Lake Street

Eric Martinuzzi

Price Target

$11 -> $10

AI Analysis

2025-11-07

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Lake Street analyst Eric Martinuzzi lowered the firm's price target on Backblaze to $10 from $11 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after reducing it out-year revenue view and assuming a lower growth rate for 2026 following the company's Q3 report.

B. Riley

Zach Cummins

Buy

downgrade

$11 -> $9

2025-11-07

Reason

B. Riley

Zach Cummins

Price Target

$11 -> $9

2025-11-07

downgrade

Buy

Reason

B. Riley analyst Zach Cummins lowered the firm's price target on Backblaze to $9 from $11 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

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BLZE Should I Buy

BLZE Should I Buy

Should You Buy Backblaze Inc (BLZE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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