Not a good buy right now: trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and price ($118.60 pre-market) sits just below the pivot (~$119.99), implying weak momentum near resistance.
Options flow is leaning defensive (put volume dominating), reinforcing near-term downside/volatility risk rather than a clean long setup.
Fundamentals recently deteriorated (2025/Q3 sharp YoY declines in revenue, EPS, and net income), and analyst actions have skewed toward downgrades and price-target cuts.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: - AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today. - SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
For an impatient buyer needing to act now, the risk/reward is unfavorable; the better action is to avoid/exit rather than buy ahead of an unclear technical reversal and upcoming earnings (2026-02-17 pre-market).
Technical Analysis
Trend/MAs: Bearish structure with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5, suggesting the broader downtrend is still intact.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -1.247 (below zero) but “negatively contracting,” which can hint at selling pressure easing—not yet a confirmed reversal.
RSI: RSI_6 ~52.95 (neutral), consistent with chop/indecision rather than a strong oversold bounce signal.
Levels: Pivot ~119.99 is immediate overhead; failure to reclaim it keeps bias weak. Support levels: S1 ~112.87 then S2 ~108.47. Resistance: R1 ~127.12.
Pattern-based forward odds: Similar-pattern stats suggest slightly negative drift (next day -1.57% median-ish move probability bias; next month -1.31%), not supportive of chasing longs today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning vs flow: OI put/call 0.92 is roughly balanced (not extreme), but put volume is heavy (put/call volume 2.37), signaling near-term bearish/hedging sentiment.
Volatility: 30D IV ~48.31 vs historical vol ~37.68, implying options are pricing elevated movement; IV percentile 62 suggests volatility is relatively rich.
Activity spike: Today’s options volume is ~145.9% of 30D average, indicating unusually active sentiment/positioning (often around uncertainty catalysts).
Technical Summary
Sell
0
Buy
13
Positive Catalysts
Potential macro tailwind if mortgage rates ease and single-family starts stabilize/rebound, benefiting a major distributor tied to new build activity.
Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-17 (pre-market); a margin/volume beat or stronger outlook could trigger a sharp relief move given elevated IV.
Some Street support remains (e.g., UBS still at Buy with a higher target), leaving room for re-rating if housing data improves.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Margin risk: Ability to pass through lumber/commodity moves is in focus; weaker demand can pressure pricing and profitability.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $3.941B, down -6.88% YoY (top-line contraction).
Net income: $122.4M, down -57.03% YoY (profitability compressed sharply).
EPS: $1.10, down -54.92% YoY (earnings power weakened materially).
Gross margin: 30.43%, down -7.08% YoY (margin deterioration consistent with pricing/volume pressure).
Trading behavior: Hedge funds and insiders are both Neutral recently (no strong “smart money” accumulation signal).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Multiple downgrades and price-target cuts into early 2026, reflecting softer housing/backdrop and commodity/lumber uncertainty.
Key changes: Jefferies downgraded to Hold (PT $110); Stephens downgraded to Equal Weight (PT $137); RBC kept Sector Perform but cut PT to $111; DA Davidson kept Neutral and cut PT to $111; Stifel/Wells Fargo sit at Hold/Equal Weight around $115; Barclays stays Overweight with PT $123; UBS remains Buy but cut PT to $143.
Wall Street pros: BLDR viewed as a distributor with leverage to any starts recovery “without builder baggage”; some see building products/distribution as relatively better positioned than homebuilders.
Wall Street cons: Near-term start volatility, potential margin squeeze, and limited pricing power in a soft demand environment; overall tone has shifted more cautious via downgrades/cuts.
Influential/political flows: No recent congress trading data available (no signal from politician activity).
People Also Watch
Wall Street analysts forecast BLDR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BLDR is 124.28 USD with a low forecast of 109.41 USD and a high forecast of 150 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BLDR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BLDR is 124.28 USD with a low forecast of 109.41 USD and a high forecast of 150 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 120.060
Low
109.41
Averages
124.28
High
150
Current: 120.060
Low
109.41
Averages
124.28
High
150
DA Davidson
Neutral
downgrade
$115 -> $111
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
Reason
DA Davidson
Price Target
$115 -> $111
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
DA Davidson lowered the firm's price target on Builders FirstSource to $111 from $115 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm is updating its model to reflect the recent commodity price changes and updated go-forward assumptions, as well as further diligence around the 2026 outlook framework and recent new residential construction data, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The ability to pass-through rising lumber prices in still tepid single-family starts environment is an important dynamic to monitor, the firm added.
Stephens
Stephens
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$137
2026-01-20
Reason
Stephens
Stephens
Price Target
$137
2026-01-20
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Stephens downgraded Builders FirstSource to Equal Weight from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $137 after adjusting estimates to reflect recent declines in commodity lumber prices in Q4. With continued macro uncertainty, the firm's estimates coming down, and the stock approaching the firm's price target, the firm is moving to the sidelines for now, the analyst tells investors.
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