Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: sentiment/positioning (options + hedge funds) skews bearish while technicals are not showing a fresh upside trigger.
Best stance today is hold/avoid new entry unless price breaks and holds above ~$501 (R1) with momentum; otherwise downside chop toward ~$465 support is more likely than a clean breakout.
Near-term catalyst risk: next earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-26 pre-market can move the stock sharply; current setup doesn’t pay you to rush in ahead of it.
Technical Analysis
Pre-market ~485 is sitting near the pivot ~483, implying an indecision zone rather than a strong trend entry.
MACD histogram -2.828 (below 0) but negatively contracting → bearish momentum is fading, yet not flipped bullish.
RSI(6) ~54.8 (neutral) → no oversold “snapback” signal.
Moving averages converging → consolidation; typically you want a breakout confirmation before buying.
Pattern-based projection provided: ~60% odds of mild drift lower (next day/week/month), supporting a “don’t chase” stance.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Put dominance is extreme (OI P/C 6.94, Volume P/C 8.0) → options market is positioned defensively/bearish.
Volume is elevated vs average (today vs 30d avg volume ~168.75%) → the bearish tilt is active, not stale.
Implied vol is relatively low vs its own history (IV percentile ~24.8, IV rank ~4.82) → sentiment is bearish, but not pricing “panic”; more consistent with hedging/caution than capitulation.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
12
Positive Catalysts
and hold, technicals could transition from consolidation to breakout.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Upcoming earnings (2026-02-26 pre-market) adds event risk; with weak sentiment, misses/guidance could be punished.
Cons: housing-cycle sensitivity through 1H26, valuation debate, and current margin/earnings pressure.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available (no evidence here of influential political buying/selling).
Wall Street analysts forecast BLD stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BLD is 486.75 USD with a low forecast of 410 USD and a high forecast of 536 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BLD stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BLD is 486.75 USD with a low forecast of 410 USD and a high forecast of 536 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 493.910
Low
410
Averages
486.75
High
536
Current: 493.910
Low
410
Averages
486.75
High
536
Jefferies
Buy
maintain
$518 -> $536
AI Analysis
2025-12-15
Reason
Jefferies
Price Target
$518 -> $536
AI Analysis
2025-12-15
maintain
Buy
Reason
Jefferies raised the firm's price target on TopBuild to $536 from $518 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. With residential construction expected to remain soft to start 2026, the firm prefers consumer facing companies that have pricing power, the analyst tells investors in a 2026 building products outlook note.
RBC Capital
Sector Perform
initiated
$410
2025-11-20
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$410
2025-11-20
initiated
Sector Perform
Reason
RBC Capital initiated coverage of TopBuild with a Sector Perform rating and $410 price target. The firm says TopBuild is a leader in the insulation installation and distribution industry. The company is well positioned to grow organically and inorganically over time, but this largely reflected in its valuation, the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC also remains cautious on broader housing pressures, which it expects will drag at least through the first half of 2026.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for BLD
