Should I Buy BLBD? BLBD 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

59.210

1 Day change

6.61%

52 Week Range

61.950

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Buy now: The stock is in a strong uptrend (bullish MA stack + expanding positive MACD) and is being supported by bullish options sentiment and constructive Wall Street positioning.
Near-term setup is event-driven with earnings after-hours today; BLBD has a recent history of beats and is priced for an earnings move (very high IV), which aligns with an impatient, momentum-focused entry.
No politician/congress activity flagging an opposing signal (no recent congress trading data available; no influential-figure trades provided).

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) indicating strong upward momentum.
MACD: Histogram at 0.382, above zero and expanding → momentum remains positive.
RSI (6): 80.47 → overbought; suggests the move is stretched but still trending.
Levels: Pivot 50.08 (key support), S1 48.12; Resistance: R1 52.03 (being exceeded pre-market ~52.38), next R2 53.24.
Pattern-based forward drift: Similar-pattern stats imply ~+0.45% next day, +1.88% next week, +3.84% next month bias.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put/call ratios (OI 0.44, Volume 0.27) skew bullish (more calls than puts).
Implied volatility: 72.71% with IV percentile 88 → options market is pricing a large move (consistent with earnings).
Activity: Today’s options volume 33 vs 30-day average ratio 54.1 (active relative to baseline), with calls dominating (call vol 26 vs put vol 7).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings scheduled 2026-02-04 after hours (event-driven upside potential).
- Beat track record: News notes BLBD has consistently beaten EPS and revenue estimates over the past two years.
- Strategic growth narrative: Company targeting $1.5B revenue and 14.7% EBITDA margin by 2026, with emphasis on electric buses and chassis growth.
- Wall Street support: Recent price target raises with Buy ratings maintained (DA Davidson, BofA).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Overbought technical: RSI_6 at 80.47 increases the odds of a short-term digestion/pullback even within an uptrend.
- Mixed estimate revisions: Recent EPS and revenue estimate changes are described as mixed (not uniformly improving).
- Positioning signals muted: Hedge funds and insiders are reported neutral (no strong “smart money” accumulation signal recently).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4
- Revenue $409.37M, +16.89% YoY (healthy top-line growth)
- Net income $36.50M, +47.98% YoY (profitability accelerating faster than sales)
- EPS $1.12, +53.42% YoY (strong earnings leverage)
- Gross margin 21.11%, +24.03% YoY (margin expansion supports quality of growth)

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating/target trend: Targets were raised and Buy ratings reiterated.
- DA Davidson (2025-11-25): PT raised to $76 from $70, Buy; cites revenue/EBITDA beat and upbeat Q1 outlook.
- BofA (2025-11-25): PT raised to $62 from $60, Buy; cites strong execution and cash deployment plans.
Wall Street pros: Strong execution, improving profitability/margins, and a credible multi-year growth path (including EV).
Wall Street cons: Guidance characterized as conservative and near-term expectations can hinge on earnings delivery (estimates recently mixed).

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast BLBD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BLBD is 59.2 USD with a low forecast of 49 USD and a high forecast of 70 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 55.540

Low

Averages

59.2

High

Current: 55.540

Low

Averages

59.2

High

Needham

Buy

maintain

$70 -> $78

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

Reason

Needham

Price Target

$70 -> $78

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

Needham raised the firm's price target on Blue Bird to $78 from $70 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company printed inline revenues and a bottom line beat while raising full year EBITDA guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm adds it is positive on Blue Bird's improved margin profile and strategic scarcity post recent M&A in the North American specialty vehicle market.

BofA

Buy

maintain

$62 -> $65

2026-02-05

New

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$62 -> $65

2026-02-05

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

BofA raised the firm's price target on Blue Bird to $65 from $62 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after what the firm calls out as "another consecutive set of strong results."

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BLBD Should I Buy

BLBD Should I Buy

Should You Buy Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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