Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: near-term momentum is weakening (negative/expanding MACD histogram) and there are no Intellectia buy signals to override the tape.
Fundamentals and Wall Street sentiment are constructive, but the current setup looks more like a wait-for-confirmation / buy-the-breakout situation than an immediate entry.
Net: HOLD (avoid chasing/initiating here until price reclaims resistance and momentum turns up).
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.314 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum increasing.
RSI: 44.97 (neutral-to-soft) → not oversold; limited “snapback” edge.
Moving Averages: converging → consolidation/indecision rather than a clean uptrend continuation.
Key levels: Pivot 119.869 (price ~119.32 slightly below pivot). Support 117.864 (S1) then 116.625 (S2). Resistance 121.875 (R1) then 123.114 (R2).
Pattern/near-term stats: Similar-pattern read suggests ~50% chance of -1.64% next day, but +8.17% next week and +6.06% next month → choppy immediate tape with better odds on a multi-week horizon.
Volatility: 30D IV 32.71 vs HV 20.48 and IV percentile 87.2 → options are priced rich, implying elevated uncertainty; good for sellers of premium, less supportive of a clean directional “easy buy.”
Activity: Today’s volume 417 vs 30D avg (given as 39.49 multiple) implies spike vs average, but the skew is defensive (more put volume).
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
13
Positive Catalysts
Macro tailwind: Recent FOMC hold and market’s positive reaction has been supportive for financials (BK included).
Corporate/brand: Williams F1 long-term partnership is sentiment/visibility positive (not a direct earnings catalyst, but supportive for client engagement narrative).
Operating backdrop (per analyst notes): Expectations for continued balance sheet growth/earnings tailwinds into 2026 (repricing + potentially more dovish Fed leadership).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
signals defensive sentiment in the very near term.
Net income: $1.427B, +26.28% YoY → strong profitability expansion.
EPS: $2.02, +31.17% YoY → strong per-share growth, supportive of the bull thesis.
Takeaway: Fundamentals are trending positively, but the current trade decision is being limited more by near-term momentum/flow than by earnings quality.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Clear upward revisions—multiple firms raised price targets and reiterated/initiated bullish stances in early Jan 2026.
Key actions:
TD Cowen: PT to $145 (Buy)
Barclays: PT to $143 (Overweight)
Truist: Upgraded to Buy, PT $134
Morgan Stanley: PT to $124 (Overweight)
Wall Street pros: “Premier quality compounder” among trust banks, scalable operating model, supportive fixed income/custody backdrop.
Wall Street cons: Premium valuation narrative implies execution must stay strong; near-term tape/flow doesn’t currently confirm an immediate upside breakout.
Wall Street analysts forecast BK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BK is 125.59 USD with a low forecast of 109 USD and a high forecast of 145 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BK is 125.59 USD with a low forecast of 109 USD and a high forecast of 145 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 120.510
Low
109
Averages
125.59
High
145
Current: 120.510
Low
109
Averages
125.59
High
145
TD Cowen
Steven Alexopoulos
Buy
maintain
$133 -> $145
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
Reason
TD Cowen
Steven Alexopoulos
Price Target
$133 -> $145
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
maintain
Buy
Reason
TD Cowen analyst Steven Alexopoulos raised the firm's price target on BNY Mellon to $145 from $133 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted bank targets as part of a Q4 earnings preview. TD expects "solid" Q4 reports for the banks with continued balance sheet growth, repricing tailwinds, and a "likely more dovish" Federal Reserve chair in 2026. These "durable tailwinds" should lift bank stocks in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Truist
Hold
to
Buy
upgrade
$119 -> $134
2026-01-07
Reason
Truist
Price Target
$119 -> $134
2026-01-07
upgrade
Hold
to
Buy
Reason
Truist upgraded BNY Mellon to Buy from Hold with a price target of $134, up from $119. BNY Mellon has established itself as the premier quality compounder among trust banks and has earned its premium valuation, with further upside supported by its scalable operating model, the analyst tells investors in a research note. A favorable long-term fixed income backdrop, strong custody exposure, and potential bullish medium-term target updates reinforce confidence in continued outperformance, Truist adds.
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