Not a good buy right now: price ($43.84 pre-market) is above the Street’s latest targets (~$39) while fundamentals are soft.
Technical setup is not attractive for an impatient buyer: momentum is mixed-to-bearish and the stock is sitting near a pivot with limited upside to first resistance.
Options positioning is skewed bearish/defensive (very high put open interest vs calls), reinforcing caution into the next earnings event (2026-02-18 AH).
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.284 (below zero) suggests bearish momentum, though the negative histogram is contracting (selling pressure easing, but not a clear reversal).
RSI (6) at 65.37: near the upper-neutral zone, not oversold; limited “bounce” edge for a quick entry.
Moving averages: converging MAs indicate consolidation/chop rather than a clean uptrend.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: No signal on given stock today. (AI Stock Picker: none; SwingMax: none)
Pattern-based odds: modeled bias slightly negative near-term (next day -0.29%, next week -0.76%), with only modest 1-month upside (+0.63%).
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Put open interest (4441) heavily outweighs call open interest (1093) → bearish/hedging skew.
Volatility: 30D IV ~57.08 vs HV ~63.84; IV percentile 72.4 (relatively elevated) → options are not “cheap,” and sentiment is cautious.
Activity: Today’s options volume is extremely low (2 contracts) and ~0.83x of 30D average volume, so sentiment read is more from OI than from fresh flow.
Technical Summary
Sell
0
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Gross margin improved in 2025/Q3 (31.38%, +2.08% YoY), which could support profitability if traffic/pricing stabilizes.
Potential upside catalyst: upcoming QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-18 (AH) could re-rate shares if comps/margins surprise positively.
MACD selling pressure is easing (negative histogram contracting), which can precede short-term bounces if buyers step in above the pivot.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
is well above the latest published price targets ($
while ratings remain Neutral/Underweight.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $330.157M, +1.37% YoY (low growth).
Profitability: Net income $0.465M, down -115.89% YoY (material deterioration).
EPS: $0.02, down -115.38% YoY (sharp decline, indicates earnings pressure).
Gross margin: 31.38%, +2.08% YoY (a bright spot, but not enough to offset the EPS/net income drop).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating/target trend: price targets were raised to $39 by both Mizuho (Neutral) and Barclays (Underweight) in early Jan 2026, but ratings stayed cautious.
Wall Street “pros” view: margin improvement potential and casual dining relative resilience (per sector commentary) could help if pricing/traffic stabilize.
Wall Street “cons” view: ongoing sector sales challenges and competitive price pressures; BJRI specifically is not a top pick in coverage, and the stock trades above the updated targets.
Net takeaway: even with higher targets, the consensus stance remains skeptical (Neutral/Underweight) and does not support chasing at $43+.
Wall Street analysts forecast BJRI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BJRI is 42.97 USD with a low forecast of 38 USD and a high forecast of 50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BJRI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BJRI is 42.97 USD with a low forecast of 38 USD and a high forecast of 50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 43.810
Low
38
Averages
42.97
High
50
Current: 43.810
Low
38
Averages
42.97
High
50
Mizuho
Nick Setyan
Neutral
maintain
$32 -> $39
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
Reason
Mizuho
Nick Setyan
Price Target
$32 -> $39
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Mizuho analyst Nick Setyan raised the firm's price target on BJ's Restaurants to $39 from $32 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the restaurant group as part of its 2026 outlook. Mizuho's base case remains a restaurant price war continues this year to combat traffic share loss to grocery as a result of higher post-COVID relative price increases. Casual diners are best positioned to outperform, followed by coffee and fast casual, with quick service positioned least favorably, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho's top pick remains Dutch Bros. It added Brinker and Cheesecake Factory to its top three, while removing Domino's Pizza and Wingstop.
Barclays
Underweight
maintain
$30 -> $39
2026-01-07
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$30 -> $39
2026-01-07
maintain
Underweight
Reason
Barclays raised the firm's price target on BJ's Restaurants to $39 from $30 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the restaurant group as part of its 2026 outlook. Sales challenges persist for the sector, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays expects quick service to regain share from fast casual and casual dining, and it remains bullish on foodservice distribution.
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