Not a good buy right now: trend is still bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) and price is trading below the key pivot (38.51) with downside risk toward 36.92/35.94.
Recent Capital Markets Day messaging (slower revenue growth outlook + lower gross margin forecast) is an immediate overhang and can keep rallies capped in the near term.
Options positioning is mixed-to-defensive (high put open interest vs calls), implying investors are still hedging for downside.
If you’re impatient and want immediate momentum, this setup doesn’t match that profile; it’s closer to a falling-knife / stabilization candidate than a clean entry.
A more convincing “buy now” would be a reclaim of ~38.5 and then ~40.1 with improving momentum; until then, it’s a Hold/Wait rather than an immediate buy.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.233 (below zero). While it’s “negatively contracting” (selling pressure easing), it’s not a confirmed reversal signal yet.
RSI: 33.7 (weak/near-oversold territory), which can support a short-term bounce, but oversold can persist in downtrends.
Levels to watch: Pivot 38.51 (needs to reclaim to improve near-term bias). Support S1 36.92 then S2 35.94. Resistance R1 40.10 then R2 41.08.
Pattern-based probability: Model implies slightly negative next day/week, modestly positive next month—suggesting near-term pressure, potential later stabilization.
Positioning/Sentiment: High open interest put/call (1.95) signals heavier put positioning (bearish/hedging tone).
Flow today: Put/call volume ratio 0.53 suggests more call volume than put volume today (short-term speculation/relief-rally attempts), conflicting with the defensive OI backdrop.
Volatility: 30D IV 53.86 with IV percentile 76 (options priced rich vs typical), consistent with elevated event risk expectations.
Activity: Volume vs 30D average is elevated (5.23x), implying sentiment is active and reactive around guidance/news/next earnings.
Technical Summary
Sell
7
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
showed strong EPS and net income growth, which supports the fundamental bull case if margins stabilize.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
CMD/news: Revenue growth outlook trimmed to 13–15% over next two years; mix shift toward B2B and production constraints weigh on revenue quality.
Gross margin outlook reduced to 57–58% amid rising production costs and competition—core driver of multiple compression.
Stock already down materially (~39% from last year per news), indicating the market is repricing growth/margins; rallies may face supply.
Options open interest skew (put-heavy) suggests investors remain positioned defensively.
Technical setup remains a downtrend; failure to hold 36.92 risks a quick move toward ~35.94.
Gross Margin: 58.41%, down 0.93pp YoY (margin pressure is emerging—aligns with the newer, more cautious margin outlook).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets have generally been cut, even when ratings stay constructive—signaling confidence in the brand but less confidence in near-term margin/growth.
Goldman (Buy) trimmed PT to 59 from 62.8 (still bullish on momentum/valuation).
Morgan Stanley kept Equal Weight but cut PT sharply to 47 from 57 (more cautious).
Deutsche resumed Buy with $50 PT (constructive macro/top-line view).
Bernstein kept Market Perform and cut PT to 55 (flags FY26 headwinds, margin/tax impacts).
Williams downgraded to Hold with $51 PT (concerns about clarity and margin guidance).
Wall Street pros: strong brand + structural growth opportunities.
Wall Street cons: decelerating growth narrative, DTC-to-B2B mix dilution, and margin headwinds driving multiple compression.
Influential/politician trading: No recent congress trading data available; insiders reported neutral (no significant recent trend).
Wall Street analysts forecast BIRK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BIRK is 59.05 USD with a low forecast of 49 USD and a high forecast of 66 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BIRK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BIRK is 59.05 USD with a low forecast of 49 USD and a high forecast of 66 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 37.290
Low
49
Averages
59.05
High
66
Current: 37.290
Low
49
Averages
59.05
High
66
Williams Trading
Hold
to
Buy
upgrade
$49
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
Reason
Williams Trading
Price Target
$49
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
upgrade
Hold
to
Buy
Reason
Williams Trading upgraded Birkenstock to Buy from Hold with an unchanged price target of $49. There were few surprises that came out the company's Capital Markets Day held last week, says the analyst, who adds that the firm's upgrade is based "purely on valuation."
Goldman Sachs
Louise Singlehurst
Buy
downgrade
$59
2026-01-29
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Louise Singlehurst
Price Target
$59
2026-01-29
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Goldman Sachs analyst Louise Singlehurst lowered the firm's price target on Birkenstock to $59 from $62.80 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Capital Markets Day presentation suggests that its strong momentum continues, and the firm still finds the stock's valuation "attractive", the analyst tells investors in a research note. Brand momentum continues to be strong as full price realization remains well over 90% with structural growth opportunities in key markets which remain underpenetrated, the firm added.
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