Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is breaking below near-term support while momentum (MACD) is still worsening.
Options positioning is moderately bullish (put/call < 1) and volume is elevated, but it’s not yet translating into a clean bullish price reversal.
With no proprietary buy signals today and no fresh news catalyst, odds favor waiting for either a reclaim of key levels or a clearer momentum turn rather than buying into current weakness.
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.16) and expanding lower → bearish momentum is strengthening in the short term.
RSI: RSI(6)=37.4 (near oversold but still “neutral”) → selling pressure is present, but not a confirmed reversal signal.
Moving averages: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 is structurally bullish, implying the broader trend may still be up, but short-term momentum is currently pulling down.
Key levels: Pivot 33.78 is overhead resistance; pre-market (~31.03) is below S1 (31.79) with next support S2 at 30.56. A break-and-hold below ~31.8 tilts risk toward a test of ~30.6.
Pattern-based odds (provided): Similar-pattern model suggests a 70% chance of a bounce (7.15% next day), but the live momentum indicators currently conflict with that and increase whipsaw risk.
Activity: Today’s options volume is elevated (~135% of 30-day average), suggesting rising attention/speculation.
Volatility: 30D IV ~58.5 vs HV ~51; IV percentile ~33 and IV rank ~37.8 → options are not extremely expensive relative to the past year, but still priced above realized volatility.
Takeaway: Options market is positioning more bullish than bearish, but the underlying tape (MACD/level break) has not confirmed a sustained upside move yet.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Q3 showed revenue growth (+5.2% YoY) and gross margin expansion (36.67, +5.16% YoY), supporting the long-term efficiency narrative.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
pre-market; failure to reclaim this area increases downside risk toward ~30.
Profitability optics deteriorated sharply in the latest quarter: Net income and EPS plunged YoY, which can cap multiple expansion even if revenue grows.
Net income: 470,230,000 (-691.37% YoY) and EPS: 1.03 (-642.11% YoY) → major YoY decline (suggests base effects/one-offs and/or cost/income volatility), a near-term sentiment headwind.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent actions (Nov 2025) skew positive: Barclays raised PT to $34 (Overweight), Benchmark to $29 (Buy), JPMorgan to $27 (Overweight), Citi to $27 (Neutral), BofA trimmed to $31 (Buy).
Trend: Mostly upward price target revisions post-Q3, indicating improved confidence in advertising/gaming trajectory; one minor trim (BofA) signals some caution on ads revenue.
Pros (Wall St view): Content-led strategy validation, improving growth outlook in ads/gaming, margin improvement.
Cons (Wall St view): Valuation seen as demanding by at least one neutral house (Citi); near-term fundamentals/profitability volatility remains a concern.
Wall Street analysts forecast BILI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BILI is 30.25 USD with a low forecast of 27 USD and a high forecast of 34 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BILI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BILI is 30.25 USD with a low forecast of 27 USD and a high forecast of 34 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 30.200
Low
27
Averages
30.25
High
34
Current: 30.200
Low
27
Averages
30.25
High
34
BofA
Alex Liu
Buy
downgrade
$32 -> $31
AI Analysis
2025-11-28
Reason
BofA
Alex Liu
Price Target
$32 -> $31
AI Analysis
2025-11-28
downgrade
Buy
Reason
BofA analyst Alex Liu lowered the firm's price target on Bilibili to $31 from $32 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. After having hosted the Bilibili investor relations team during the firm's AI Tech/Internet Conference on November 25, the analyst fine tune the firm's FY25-27 adjusted net income estimates to reflect higher interest income but slightly lower ads revenue, the analyst tells investors.
JPMorgan
Daniel Chen
maintain
$24 -> $27
2025-11-18
Reason
JPMorgan
Daniel Chen
Price Target
$24 -> $27
2025-11-18
maintain
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Daniel Chen raised the firm's price target on Bilibili to $27 from $24 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares.
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