Should I Buy BHP? BHP 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy BHP Group Ltd (BHP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

69.640

1 Day change

0.78%

52 Week Range

74.980

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is pushing into near-term resistance (R1 ~73.52) with RSI elevated and no proprietary “strong buy” signals.
Options positioning is bullish (calls > puts), but implied volatility is extremely high (IV percentile ~96%), suggesting you’re paying up for upside exposure.
News flow has a meaningful near-term overhang from China-related iron ore pricing/import restrictions, while hedge funds are aggressively selling.
If you must act today: prefer hold / wait for a pullback closer to ~69–70 pivot support rather than chasing strength at resistance.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating an established uptrend across short/medium/long term.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.364 and expanding, supportive of upside continuation.
Overbought risk: RSI(6) ~71.66 (elevated), often associated with short-term pullback risk even in an uptrend.
Levels: Pivot ~69.42 (key support); Resistance R1 ~73.52 (current pre-market ~73.25 is close), then R2 ~76.06.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern stats imply ~70% chance of -2.28% next day, mildly negative next week, but positive next month (+11.82%)—supports “good trend, bad timing.”
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put/call ratios (OI 0.64; volume 0.4) indicate bullish positioning (more call interest and call trading).
Pricing: 30D IV ~40 vs historical vol ~33.96 and IV percentile ~96.41 → options look expensive; market is pricing elevated movement.
Activity: Today’s option volume (~~4,355) is below 30-day average (~~57% of avg), suggesting no major “new” rush of speculation today.
Takeaway: Options market leans bullish, but elevated IV reduces the attractiveness of initiating fresh upside bets at this moment.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Innovation/longer-term growth narrative: BHP’s 2026 Xplor program expanded (largest cohort) and highlights increased use of AI/data analytics in exploration.
- Technical backdrop remains bullish (moving averages aligned; MACD positive).
- Analyst commentary (Argus) ties upside to firming iron ore/copper/coal as global growth improves.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Event-driven risk: China-related pressure—potential up to ~$2B impact from restrictions/discounting dynamics and declining demand signals.
- Commodity pricing headwinds: Reported 80% drop in premiums for certain products adds revenue pressure.
- Positioning: Hedge funds are selling aggressively (large QoQ increase), which can cap near-term upside.
- Short-term setup: Price is near resistance with elevated RSI → higher probability of a near-term dip.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter financials were not provided (financial snapshot error), so growth/seasonal quarter assessment can’t be confirmed from the supplied data.
Market drivers remain primarily commodity-price-linked (iron ore, copper, coal), per analyst notes.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend: Price targets have generally moved up (JPMorgan raised targets twice; Berenberg raised target), but ratings are mixed.
Most bullish recent change: Argus upgraded to Buy with a $68 target (notably below the current ~72–73 level, implying limited upside vs today’s price).
Offsetting views: JPMorgan stays Neutral; Berenberg stays Sell despite raising target.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
- Pros: improving commodity backdrop thesis; technical reversal/uptrend narrative.
- Cons: mixed conviction (Neutral/Sell still present) and near-term China/iron-ore pricing risks.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast BHP stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BHP is 54.88 USD with a low forecast of 48 USD and a high forecast of 68 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

1 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 69.100

Low

Averages

54.88

High

Current: 69.100

Low

Averages

54.88

High

JPMorgan

Dominic O'Kane

Neutral

maintain

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

Reason

JPMorgan

Dominic O'Kane

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

maintain

Neutral

Reason

JPMorgan analyst Dominic O'Kane raised the firm's price target on BHP Group to 2,400 GBp from 2,300 GBp and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

Argus

Hold

Buy

upgrade

$68

2025-12-30

Reason

Argus

Price Target

$68

2025-12-30

upgrade

Hold

Buy

Reason

Argus upgraded BHP Group to Buy from Hold with a $68 price target.

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BHP Should I Buy

BHP Should I Buy

Should You Buy BHP Group Ltd (BHP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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