Should I Buy BFST? BFST 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Business First Bancshares Inc (BFST) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

29.840

1 Day change

0.47%

52 Week Range

30.320

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Buy now: BFST is in a strong uptrend (bullish MAs + expanding positive MACD) and is supported by upbeat Q4 results and multiple price-target raises.
Upside vs. Street targets remains attractive: recent targets $31–$35 vs. pre-market $29.99 (~3% to ~17% upside).
Options positioning is bullish/constructive (put-call ratios favor calls) and IV has been easing, consistent with improving sentiment.
Main near-term drawback is overbought RSI plus accelerating insider selling, but the weight of trend + earnings/analyst momentum still favors buying for an impatient buyer.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, confirming upside momentum across short/medium/long term.
MACD: Histogram +0.265 and expanding, signaling strengthening bullish momentum.
RSI (6): 82.82 (overbought) — price is strong, but short-term chase risk is elevated.
Levels: Pivot 28.43. Price is above R1 29.752 and approaching R2 30.569; a break/hold above R1 is supportive, while R2 is the next nearby ceiling.
Pattern-based forward bias (similar candlesticks): model suggests ~+5.94% next week and ~+11.91% next month (with a mild next-day dip bias).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment (OI): Put/Call OI ratio 0.6 (calls > puts) = bullish tilt.
Sentiment (volume): Put/Call volume ratio 0.0 (puts effectively absent today; calls traded) = bullish/one-sided flow, though on very low absolute volume.
Activity: Today’s option volume 3 and 150% of 30D average (still thin overall); open interest 83 (103.75% of avg).
Volatility: IV30 55.07 vs HV 28.52 (options pricing in elevated moves); IV rank 18.85 / IV percentile 43.43 suggests IV is not extremely stretched relative to its recent range.
IV trend: IV 5D avg 61.404 and 10D avg 69.924 above current, implying recent IV cooling, often consistent with stabilizing sentiment after earnings.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Strong latest quarter (2025/Q4): solid revenue growth and sharp profit/EPS acceleration.
- Analyst momentum: multiple firms raised price targets after Q4 results while maintaining bullish ratings.
- Business drivers cited by analysts: loan growth, net interest margin resilience, fee-based traction, and balance sheet repricing trends.
- M&A/strategic angle (per analysts): benefits expected from Oakwood/Progressive-related growth opportunities.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Overbought technical condition: RSI_6 at 82.82 increases odds of short-term cooling/pullback even within an uptrend.
- Insider trading: insiders are net sellers, with selling amount up 178.64% over the last month (a notable sentiment headwind).
- No near-term news catalysts: “No news in recent week,” which can reduce urgency/flow-driven upside in the immediate term.
- Options market depth: very low absolute options volume can make sentiment reads less reliable.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4
Revenue: $76.132M, +8.35% YoY (steady top-line growth).
Net Income: $21.009M, +38.78% YoY (profitability accelerating faster than revenue).
EPS: $0.71, +39.22% YoY (strong earnings momentum).
Overall read: growth is improving with particularly strong bottom-line leverage in the latest quarter.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating/target trend (bullish and improving):
- 2026-01-26: DA Davidson Buy, PT raised $32 → $33 (post Q4 beat).
- 2026-01-23: Stephens Overweight, PT raised $34 → $35 (strong fees/loan growth).
- 2026-01-07: Raymond James Outperform, PT raised $30 → $31 (positive risk-reward; discounted vs peers).
- 2025-11-25: DA Davidson initiated Buy, PT $32.
Wall Street pros: consistent bullish ratings, targets moving higher, positive commentary on loan growth, fee income, margin durability, and balance sheet repricing.
Wall Street cons: upside is partly dependent on continued execution (growth + repricing + integration benefits); insider selling is a counter-signal to the otherwise positive Street tone.
Politicians/Congress: no recent congress trading data available (no confirmed political buying/selling signal).
Institutional/other flows: hedge funds noted as neutral with no significant last-quarter trend.

BFST Should I Buy