Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: trend is bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and price (6.705 pre-market) is below the pivot (6.761), suggesting weak near-term control by sellers.
Options positioning is bullish-leaning (low put/call ratios), but the very elevated IV (IV percentile 94) implies expensive option pricing and a market braced for big moves—this can cut both ways.
Fundamentals show strong top-line growth (2025/Q3 revenue +36% YoY), but profitability deteriorated sharply (net income and EPS down YoY), and insiders are aggressively selling—together these reduce confidence for an immediate buy.
With earnings on 2026-02-25 (pre-market), the next major catalyst window is approaching; absent a clear technical reversal or a proprietary buy signal, the risk/reward is not compelling “right now.”
Trend/MAs: Bearish structure (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) signals an established downtrend.
Momentum (MACD): Histogram -0.0133 below zero and negatively contracting → downside momentum persists, though selling pressure may be stabilizing slightly.
RSI(6): 44.399 (neutral-to-weak) → no oversold bounce signal yet.
Key levels: Pivot 6.761 overhead is first reclaim level; resistance at 7.04 then 7.212. Support at 6.482 then 6.31—if 6.482 breaks, downside risk increases.
Near-term pattern stats (provided): Similar-pattern projection suggests modest upside bias over week/month (next week +8.49%, next month +7.98%), but the current tape is still technically bearish, so follow-through is uncertain without a breakout above the pivot/resistance.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment (OI/Volume): Open interest put-call ratio 0.25 and volume put-call ratio 0.3 → calls dominate (bullish tilt).
Activity: Today’s option volume 329 vs 30-day average is low (33.3) → sentiment read is based more on positioning than fresh aggressive flow.
Volatility: 30D IV 78.96 vs historical vol 50.32, IV percentile 94 → options are pricing elevated risk/event premium.
Open interest: Calls (40,250) materially exceed puts (10,059) → supportive positioning, but not a timing tool by itself given the bearish chart.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
Analyst view remains constructive on BioCryst: H.C. Wainwright reiterates Buy and raised PT to $32 (from $30), citing pediatric label expansion for Orladeyo.
Strong revenue growth in 2025/Q3 (+36.14% YoY) with very high gross margin (98.63%) supports the commercial story.
Potential upside catalyst window into earnings (2026-02-25 pre-market) if they show improving profitability/updates on Orladeyo trajectory.
Options positioning skewed to calls (low put/call ratios) can provide a tailwind if price reclaims 6.761 then 7.04.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
→ unfavorable immediate entry for a momentum/price-confirmation approach.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 159.395M, up 36.14% YoY → strong growth.
Gross margin: 98.63%, up 1.43% YoY → maintains extremely high product economics.
Net income: 12.899M, down -191.92% YoY → profitability weakened substantially.
Recent BioCryst-relevant update: (2025-12-15) H.C. Wainwright raised price target to $32 from $30 and maintained a Buy, citing Orladeyo approval in pediatric patients.
Another provided analyst note (2026-01-08) references Bicara Therapeutics, not BioCryst; excluding it from BCRX read-through.
Cons: Earnings power trending weaker (net income/EPS down YoY) and heavy insider selling conflicts with the bullish PT stance.
Wall Street analysts forecast BCRX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BCRX is 19.45 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 32 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BCRX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BCRX is 19.45 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 32 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 6.240
Low
8
Averages
19.45
High
32
Current: 6.240
Low
8
Averages
19.45
High
32
BTIG
initiated
$28
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
Reason
BTIG
Price Target
$28
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
initiated
Reason
BTIG initiated coverage of Bicara Therapeutics with a Buy rating and $28 price target. Bicara is a clinical stage biotechnology company advancing ficerafusp alfa for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma and other solid tumors, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the Phase 1b data for ficera plus pembrolizumab shows clinically differentiated duration of response and survival data compared to the standard of care. It believes the HNSCC market is "capable of supporting multiple players."
H.C. Wainwright
Buy
maintain
$30 -> $32
2025-12-15
Reason
H.C. Wainwright
Price Target
$30 -> $32
2025-12-15
maintain
Buy
Reason
H.C. Wainwright raised the firm's price target on BioCryst to $32 from $30 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm cites the approval of Orladeyo in the pediatric patient population for the target bump. Orladeyo is the first and only targeted oral prophylactic therapy approved for use in patients ages two to 12 with hereditary angioedema, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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