Not a good buy right now (especially for an impatient trader): no proprietary buy signal, momentum is still weakening, and options positioning is notably defensive/bearish.
Tactical view: price is hovering just above near-term support (~16.21). Without a reversal signal, odds favor chop/down before any sustainable move higher.
What would change the call: a reclaim of the pivot (~17.04) and follow-through toward ~17.86 (R1) with improving MACD/RSI, or a clear catalyst (trial/update) that shifts sentiment.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0219) and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is increasing.
RSI: RSI(6)=38.08 → weak/near-oversold but not showing a confirmed reversal signal.
Moving averages: converging MAs → consolidation, but current momentum tilt remains bearish.
Key levels (pre-market ~16.37):
Support: S1=16.214 (very close), S2=15.704
Resistance: Pivot=17.039, R1=17.864, R2=18.374
Pattern-based forward bias: model suggests ~70% chance of -0.27% next day and -0.07% next week, with only modest +1.46% next month → near-term edge is not favorable for an immediate buy.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Put OI (1705) materially exceeds Call OI (549) → OI put/call=3.11, signaling defensive/bearish skew.
Flow today: total volume 40, all puts (put volume 40, call volume 0) → short-term sentiment is not bullish.
Volatility: 30D IV ~137% vs HV ~54% → options are pricing very large moves; IV percentile ~41.8 (mid-range), so not “max panic,” but still extremely high in absolute terms.
Read-through: options market is not signaling upside conviction today; more consistent with hedging/speculation to the downside.
Technical Summary
Sell
7
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
can create a short-term bounce if buyers step in and price reclaims ~17.04 pivot.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Bearish momentum: MACD is below zero and worsening, suggesting sellers still control the tape.
Options sentiment: very high OI put/call (3.11) and put-only volume today → cautious-to-bearish positioning.
Competitive landscape risk: Mizuho views ficerafusp alfa as unfavorably positioned; suggests limited incremental efficacy contribution vs cetuximab comparisons.
No near-term catalyst in news: with no recent news, the stock may drift with risk sentiment/technicals rather than rerate upward immediately.
Influential trading: no insider trend and no hedge fund trend flagged; no congress trading data available (no supportive signal from “smart money” flows).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: 0 (pre-revenue biotech profile).
Profitability: Net income -$36.33M (loss) and EPS -0.67; the YoY % shown implies losses widened vs prior year period.
Growth quality: with no revenue base and continuing losses, the stock remains primarily catalyst/clinical-data driven rather than fundamentals-driven right now.
Wall Street pros: meaningful upside case tied to clinical efficacy + combination therapy potential.
Wall Street cons: skepticism on differentiation in a competitive HNSCC landscape; valuation/rerating depends heavily on future data.
Net takeaway: targets imply upside from ~$16.37, but the street is not uniformly bullish, and current tape/options don’t support an “impatient buy-now” entry.
Wall Street analysts forecast BCAX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BCAX is 30.44 USD with a low forecast of 11 USD and a high forecast of 48 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BCAX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BCAX is 30.44 USD with a low forecast of 11 USD and a high forecast of 48 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 15.100
Low
11
Averages
30.44
High
48
Current: 15.100
Low
11
Averages
30.44
High
48
Citizens
initiated
$31
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
Reason
Citizens
Price Target
$31
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
initiated
Reason
Citizens initiated coverage of Bicara Therapeutics with an Outperform rating and $31 price target. The firm says the company's ficerafusp alfa, in combination with pembrolizumab, has delivered "standout efficacy" in HPV-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The analyst says Bicara shares represent an attractive investment opportunity, with 40% potential downside in a bear case and 210% potential upside in a bull case.
Mizuho
Joseph Catanzaro
Neutral
initiated
$18
2025-12-17
Reason
Mizuho
Joseph Catanzaro
Price Target
$18
2025-12-17
initiated
Neutral
Reason
Mizuho analyst Joseph Catanzaro initiated coverage of Bicara Therapeutics with a Neutral rating and $18 price target. The firm believes the company's ficerafusp alfa is unfavorably positioned in an "increasingly competitive" head and neck cancer landscape. Comparisons with cetuximab indicates little efficacy contribution from ficerafusp's TGF beta trap, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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