Should I Buy BAX? BAX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Baxter International Inc (BAX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

21.730

1 Day change

-0.18%

52 Week Range

37.740

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the broader trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and there’s no Intellectia buy signal to override that.
Near-term setup looks “range-bound”: price is sitting close to the pivot (19.824) with nearby resistance at 20.29; upside likely needs a clean break/hold above resistance to justify chasing.
Options positioning is skewed defensive (put-heavy), and elevated implied volatility suggests the market is pricing uncertainty into upcoming catalysts (notably earnings on 2026-02-12).

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), implying rallies may face selling pressure.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0327) but contracting, signaling bearish momentum is weakening (possible stabilization, not a confirmed reversal).
RSI: RSI_6 = 53.1 (neutral), indicating no immediate overbought/oversold edge.
Levels to watch: Pivot 19.824; support S1 19.358 then S2 19.07; resistance R1 20.29 then R2 20.578. A break above 20.29 improves the long side; losing 19.36 increases downside risk.
Statistical pattern read: Similar-pattern projection suggests modest 1-day upside (~~+0.39%), weak 1-week bias (~~-1.44%), and better 1-month potential (~+5.16%), consistent with “choppy near term, better swing later.”
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put open interest outweighs calls (OI PCR 1.5) and put volume is heavier than call volume (volume PCR 1.19) → cautious-to-bearish positioning / hedging demand.
Volatility: 30D IV 45.75 vs historical vol 52.1; IV percentile 81.2 (elevated vs its own history) → options market pricing above-normal uncertainty.
Activity: Today’s volume is very high vs 30-day average (13.76x) and open interest is elevated vs average (109.54%) → heightened positioning, often around upcoming events (earnings on 2026-02-12).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-12 (pre-market) could clarify outlook and act as a “clearing event.”
- Some Street views argue uncertainty is already discounted (Barclays) and new guidance could re-rate shares (Citi catalyst watch).
- Longer-horizon pattern read points to potential positive bias over the next month (~+5.16%), supportive for a swing move if price can reclaim/hold above key resistance.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Primary technical headwind: entrenched bearish moving-average stack suggests rallies can fail until trend reverses.
- Options market is defensively skewed (put-heavy) and IV is elevated, implying traders anticipate risk/volatility rather than a smooth upside trend.
- Fundamentals show margin and profitability pressure (gross margin down YoY; negative net income/EPS), which can limit multiple expansion.
- No supportive news flow in the last week to act as an immediate upside trigger.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $2.835B, +5.04% YoY (top-line growth is positive).
Profitability: Net income -$46M (down -132.86% YoY) and EPS -$0.09 (down -133.33% YoY) → earnings deterioration.
Margins: Gross margin 34.43%, down -10.22% YoY → indicates cost/mix pressure and is a key swing factor to monitor going into the next earnings.
Ownership/trading color: Hedge funds neutral; insiders neutral. No recent Congress trading data available.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst trend: mixed but generally cautious with several target trims alongside selective optimism.
Barclays (2026-01-09): Overweight; PT cut to $30 from $36; view that uncertainty is adequately discounted and Q4/2026 outlook may lift shares.
Goldman Sachs (2026-01-09): Neutral; PT raised to $23 from $22; expects normalized valuation patterns tied to organic growth.
Evercore ISI (2026-01-05): Outperform; PT cut to $23 from $24; sees sector setup improving but flags policy/rotation risks.
Citi (2025-12-11): Neutral; $21 PT; added upside 90-day catalyst watch into new management guidance.
Morgan Stanley (2025-12-02): Underweight; PT cut to $15 from $19; notably more bearish than peers.
Wall Street pros/cons summary: Pros—potential re-rating if guidance clears uncertainty; some bullish targets well above current price. Cons—meaningful disagreement across firms and margin/earnings pressure keeps bears active.

12 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast BAX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BAX is 21.73 USD with a low forecast of 15 USD and a high forecast of 30 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

9 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 21.770

Low

Averages

21.73

High

Current: 21.770

Low

Averages

21.73

High

Barclays

Matt Miksic

Overweight

downgrade

$36 -> $30

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

Reason

Barclays

Matt Miksic

Price Target

$36 -> $30

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

Barclays analyst Matt Miksic lowered the firm's price target on Baxter to $30 from $36 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model. The uncertainty related to Baxter's outlook is "adequately discounted" in the shares, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays expects the company's Q4 results and 2026 outlook to "help unwind this uncertainty and drive the stock higher."

Goldman Sachs

Neutral

maintain

$22 -> $23

2026-01-09

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

$22 -> $23

2026-01-09

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Baxter to $23 from $22 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. After a year when fundamentals diverged from stock performance, 2026 should represent a return to normalized patterns where organic growth defines relative valuation, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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BAX Should I Buy

BAX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Baxter International Inc (BAX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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