Should I Buy BAK? BAK 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Braskem SA (BAK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

3.640

1 Day change

5.51%

52 Week Range

4.780

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: there are no Intellectia buy signals (AI Stock Picker and SwingMax both show no signal), while fundamentals and the 1-month pattern bias lean negative.
Short-term technicals are mildly bullish (price above key pivot; MAs stacked bullish), but momentum is not accelerating (MACD positive but contracting) and upside is capped by nearby resistance.
Financial trajectory is weak (Q3 2025 saw sharp YoY deterioration in revenue, margins, and profitability), which limits conviction for an impatient, buy-now approach.
With earnings on 2026-02-26 (pre-market) and an already-cautious analyst stance/target cut, the risk-reward is unfavorable for an immediate entry.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bullish moving-average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) supports a short-term uptrend.
Momentum: RSI(6) 57.9 = neutral (not overbought/oversold).
MACD: Histogram +0.0131 (bullish), but positively contracting, suggesting upside momentum is fading.
Levels: Pivot 3.549; pre-market ~3.64 is above pivot (constructive). Near resistance at R1 3.885 (next upside hurdle); supports at S1 3.213 then S2 3.006.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern study implies ~+0.9% next day, +1% next week, but -7.35% over the next month (bearish intermediate-term skew).

Positive Catalysts

- Short-term technical posture is constructive (bullish MA alignment; trading above pivot).
- Potential event catalyst: upcoming earnings 2026-02-26 (pre-market) could re-rate shares if results/surprise are better than expected.
- Positioning signals: Hedge funds and insiders are neutral (no recent significant selling pressure indicated).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Analyst/catalyst headwind: BofA cut price target to $3.30 (Neutral) after Brazil bill/veto details were viewed as negative versus prior assumptions.
- Intermediate-term bias is negative (pattern study indicates potential ~7% downside over 1 month).
- Deteriorating fundamentals (revenue decline, margin compression, continued losses) reduce support for a sustained rally.
- No supportive news flow in the last week (no fresh positive catalysts provided).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $3.18B, -17.18% YoY (contraction).
Net income: - $4.77M, -95.54% YoY (still loss-making; worsened YoY).
EPS: -0.01, -92.31% YoY.
Gross margin: 2.52%, -76.18% YoY (major margin compression).
Overall: Clear negative growth/margin trend in the latest quarter, weakening the fundamental case for buying now.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Latest update (2025-12-23): BofA lowered price target to $3.30 from $3.70 and maintained Neutral.
Rationale: Policy outcome (PRESIQ/REIQ schedule) was viewed as negative because a proposed REIQ increase for 2026 was vetoed and the firm had already priced in those benefits.
Wall Street pros/cons view (from provided data):
- Pros: Neutral rating (not outright bearish), acknowledges some benefits in later years.
- Cons: Target cut and policy-related disappointment reduce upside expectations near-term.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available (no politician activity indicated).

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast BAK stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BAK is 3.05 USD with a low forecast of 2.8 USD and a high forecast of 3.3 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

1 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Sell

Current: 3.450

Low

2.8

Averages

3.05

High

3.3

Current: 3.450

Low

2.8

Averages

3.05

High

3.3

BofA

Neutral

downgrade

AI Analysis

2025-12-23

Reason

BofA

Price Target

AI Analysis

2025-12-23

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

BofA lowered the firm's price target on Braskem to $3.30 from $3.70 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after the Brazilian President sanctioned the Draft Bill (PL) 892/2025, which establishes the PRESIQ benefit and the REIQ's rate schedule, but vetoed the proposed increase in REIQ for 2026. The firm had already incorporated the benefits of the increase in REIQ for 2026 and the Presiq for 2027-31, so it therefore sees the news as negative, the analyst tells investors.

Grupo Santander

Neutral -> Underperform

downgrade

$2.80

2025-10-15

Reason

Grupo Santander

Price Target

$2.80

2025-10-15

downgrade

Neutral -> Underperform

Reason

Grupo Santander downgraded Braskem to Underperform from Neutral with a $2.80 price target.

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BAK Should I Buy

BAK Should I Buy

Should You Buy Braskem SA (BAK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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