Should I Buy BAH? BAH 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp (BAH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

89.010

1 Day change

5.31%

52 Week Range

130.910

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the dominant trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 and MACD momentum worsening), and the fundamental headline is revenue contraction.
Price is sitting right on key support (~84), which can produce a short-term bounce, but there’s no Intellectia “strong buy” trigger to prioritize and no clear technical reversal yet.
Net: HOLD / avoid fresh buying today; the stock needs a trend shift (stabilizing MACD and reclaiming levels above the pivot ~94) to offer a cleaner, higher-probability entry.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5, signaling sustained downside pressure.
Momentum: MACD histogram -1.498 and negatively expanding → downside momentum is strengthening, not fading.
RSI: RSI_6 ≈ 23.4 → oversold conditions (bounce potential), but oversold alone is not a reversal signal.
Key levels: Pre-market ~84 is essentially at S1 ~84.232 (near-term make-or-break). Next downside support S2 ~77.955. Upside confirmation level is the pivot ~94.393; resistance above sits at R1 ~104.555.
Pattern-based bias (provided): modestly positive 1-week (+1.6%) but negative 1-month (-1.79%), aligning with “bear trend, occasional bounce.”

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: OI put/call = 1.59 suggests heavier put open interest (more hedging/defensive positioning) → mildly bearish sentiment.
Flow: Volume put/call = 0.22 indicates calls dominated today’s trading → near-term speculative tone is more bullish than OI implies.
Volatility: 30D IV ~40.97 vs HV ~41.4 (roughly aligned). IV percentile 63 = moderately elevated, not extreme.
Activity: Today’s option volume 1,926 is **88.6% of 30-day average** (not a big “panic/mania” day). Overall: mixed-to-neutral options read (defensive OI, bullish daily flow).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Contract/newsflow: Booz Allen included in a $561M multiple-award IDIQ for defense data management services (supports backlog narrative and defense positioning).
- Sector tailwinds: Defense/cyber budgets rising (e.g., Pentagon cyber security budget cited at $15.1B) supports longer-cycle demand for cyber/data/defense contractors.
- Positioning/smart money: Hedge funds buying (+107.6% QoQ) and insiders buying (+1555% MoM) are strong supportive signals for medium-term confidence.
- Short-interest angle mentioned by a covering analyst: “better than feared” prints can trigger sharp rallies if positioning is crowded.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Fundamentals: Latest quarter shows revenue down -10.19% YoY and guidance commentary from analysts points to limited topline visibility / potential revenue contraction.
- Margins: Gross margin down (-5.27% YoY), suggesting cost/contract mix pressure even if EPS benefited from tax/mix.
- Technical setup: Downtrend is intact with worsening MACD; a break below 84 opens room toward **78 (S2)**.
- Civil exposure risk: Street commentary highlights potential cuts/pressure on civilian agency spending; CFO transition risk was also flagged previously (BofA note).
- News items on Trump/IRS leak lawsuit are mostly political/legal headlines with unclear direct benefit to BAH; could add noise around federal agencies rather than a clean catalyst.

Financial Performance

2026/Q3 results snapshot:
- Revenue: $2.62B, -10.19% YoY (core growth concern)
- Net income: $198M, +6.53% YoY
- EPS: $1.63, +12.41% YoY (helped by tax rate/margins per analyst commentary)
- Gross margin: 51.03%, down -5.27% YoY
Takeaway: Earnings held up better than revenue, but the quality of growth is mixed—profit growth without revenue growth is harder to sustain without sustained cost/tax tailwinds.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Price targets were nudged up after the latest quarter (e.g., UBS to 97, Stifel to 115, Truist to 98), but ratings largely stayed Neutral/Hold.
What Wall Street likes:
- Defense/intelligence spending resilience; potential for upside on “better than feared” results.
- EPS guidance/tax tailwinds and cost actions supporting earnings.
What Wall Street dislikes:
- Topline visibility is limited and guidance points to revenue contraction; free cash flow guidance was noted as lowered by one analyst.
- Civil spending uncertainty and organization/leadership transition concerns (flagged by BofA).
Net Street stance: Cautious/neutral—targets up modestly, but conviction remains limited due to revenue trajectory.
Politician/influential trading check: No recent congress trading data available (no signal of politician buying/selling from the provided dataset).

12 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast BAH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BAH is 99.2 USD with a low forecast of 80 USD and a high forecast of 160 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

7 Hold

3 Sell

Hold

Current: 84.520

Low

Averages

99.2

High

160

Current: 84.520

Low

Averages

99.2

High

160

UBS

Neutral

maintain

$93 -> $97

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$93 -> $97

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

maintain

Neutral

Reason

UBS raised the firm's price target on Booz Allen to $97 from $93 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. While there is still limited topline visibility, earnings are holding up, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Stifel

Hold

maintain

$106 -> $115

2026-01-26

Reason

Stifel

Price Target

$106 -> $115

2026-01-26

maintain

Hold

Reason

Stifel raised the firm's price target on Booz Allen to $115 from $106 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Revenue missed expectations, earnings beat and management's outlook for the year was largely maintained in what the firm calls "surprise-free" fiscal Q3 results from Booz Allen. The firm will be looking for signs of underlying acceleration to drive the stock forward, the analyst tells investors.

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BAH Should I Buy

BAH Should I Buy

Should You Buy Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp (BAH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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