Should I Buy BAFN? BAFN 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

6.760

1 Day change

4.48%

52 Week Range

19.750

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: no proprietary buy signals, bearish moving-average structure, and pattern-based forecast skewed negative over the next week/month.
Price is below the pivot (6.705) in pre-market (6.57), suggesting weak near-term control by buyers.
Positives (insider buying + risk-reduction pivot) are real, but current tape/price action doesn’t confirm a turn yet.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/MAs: Bearish alignment SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5, indicating the broader trend remains down.
MACD: Histogram +0.063 above zero but contracting → bullish momentum exists but is fading, not strengthening.
RSI(6): 47.05 (neutral) → no oversold bounce signal; momentum is not washed out.
Key levels: Pivot 6.705 (near-term line in the sand). Support 6.405 (S1) then 6.22 (S2). Resistance 7.005 (R1) then 7.19 (R2).
Pattern-based outlook: Similar-pattern stats imply ~60% chance of modest downside: next day -0.65%, next week -3.58%, next month -7.48% → supports a “not-now” entry view.

Positive Catalysts

- Insiders are buying: insider buying amount up 153.10% over the last month, a constructive alignment signal.
- Strategic transition completed: exiting SBA 7(a) lending in Q4 2025 reduces risk and may improve operational efficiency.
- Earnings/loss improvement: Q4 2025 net loss improved to -$2.5M from - $18.9M in Q3 2025, indicating stabilization progress.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Top-line contraction: Q4 2025 revenue down -36.82% YoY.
- Profitability still weak: Q4 2025 net income -2.848M (negative) and EPS snapshot shows down -100% YoY.
- No Intellectia buy timing support today: neither AI Stock Picker nor SwingMax is flagging an entry.
- Technical headwinds: bearish MA stack + price below pivot increases the odds of revisiting 6.405 / 6.22 supports before any sustained rebound.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4
Revenue: 12.707M (-36.82% YoY) → meaningful shrinkage.
Net income: -2.848M (-130.33% YoY per snapshot) → still loss-making, despite sequential improvement mentioned in news.
EPS: 0 (-100% YoY per snapshot) → earnings power not yet showing consistent recovery.
Overall: operational/risk reshaping is underway, but growth and profitability trends are not yet convincingly positive.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating / price target change data provided, so a clear “Wall Street trend” cannot be confirmed from this dataset.
Practical read-through: without fresh upgrades/targets and with weak reported YoY financial momentum, institutional/Street enthusiasm likely remains muted until results stabilize and the chart confirms an uptrend.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast BAFN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BAFN is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 6.470

Low

Averages

High