Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: pre-market strength is countered by weakening momentum (MACD) and bearish/defensive options positioning (put-heavy).
The stock is bouncing near a key area (around Pivot ~33.19, Support S1 ~32.02), but probability-based trend data still skews negative over 1-week and 1-month.
Near-term direction is likely to be headline-driven into earnings (2026-02-10 pre-market) and merger-related narrative, which has recently pressured analyst sentiment.
Price/levels: Pre-market ~33 is just below the Pivot (33.186); immediate resistance levels are R1 34.351 and R2 35.071; supports are S1 32.021 and S2 31.301.
Trend structure: Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the broader trend is still constructive.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.19 and negatively expanding signals increasing bearish momentum in the short term.
RSI: RSI_6 at ~23.6 is effectively oversold, implying a bounce is possible, but it’s not yet confirmed by momentum indicators.
Pattern/probability read: Similar-pattern stats imply ~+1.08% next day potential, but -0.32% next week and -2.66% next month, favoring caution on immediate buys.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put-heavy open interest and volume indicate defensive positioning / bearish bias rather than aggressive upside speculation.
Activity: Today’s options volume is elevated (~179% of 30-day average), suggesting heightened positioning ahead of catalysts.
Volatility/pricing: 30D IV ~37.36 vs historical vol ~26.84 (IV > HV) and IV percentile ~74.4 => options are expensive; market is pricing larger moves.
Net takeaway: Options market is leaning cautious/hedged into the next catalyst window.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Earnings catalyst upcoming (QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-10 pre-market; Street EPS est. ~0.
could reset sentiment if results/guide beat.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Analyst narrative has shifted more cautious due to merger-related “de-correlation with fundamentals” and weak auto refinish volumes overhang.
MACD momentum is deteriorating despite bullish longer-term moving averages, raising the risk of further near-term drift.
Options positioning is notably put-skewed (OI and volume), consistent with downside hedging into events.
No supportive signal from hedge fund/insider trend data (both neutral), and no notable influential/political buying indicated.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $1.288B, down ~2.42% YoY (top-line pressure).
Profitability: Net income $110M, up ~8.91% YoY; EPS $0.51, up ~10.87% YoY (earnings growing despite softer revenue).
Margins: Gross margin ~33%, down ~0.54% YoY (slight margin compression).
Overall: Mixed quality quarter—earnings up via efficiency/mix, but revenue and gross margin slightly weaker.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Clear shift toward Neutral/Hold—multiple downgrades in January 2026.
2026-01-23 Seaport Research: Downgraded to Neutral from Buy.
2026-01-07 Vertical Research: Downgraded to Hold from Buy; PT $37.
2026-01-07 Baird: Downgraded to Neutral; PT cut to $35 from $42; cites merger-driven de-correlation risk and weak auto refinish volumes.
2025-12-18 Citi: Kept Buy; PT raised to $37 (more constructive outlier vs the January downgrades).
Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros—earnings resilience and potential value angle. Cons—merger/volume overhang and a recent wave of downgrades/target cuts that can cap near-term upside.
Wall Street analysts forecast AXTA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AXTA is 35.92 USD with a low forecast of 29 USD and a high forecast of 43 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AXTA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AXTA is 35.92 USD with a low forecast of 29 USD and a high forecast of 43 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 33.790
Low
29
Averages
35.92
High
43
Current: 33.790
Low
29
Averages
35.92
High
43
Seaport Research
Buy -> Neutral
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
Reason
Seaport Research
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
downgrade
Buy -> Neutral
Reason
Seaport Research downgraded Axalta Coating to Neutral from Buy.
Vertical Research
Kevin McCarthy
Buy
to
Hold
downgrade
$37
2026-01-07
Reason
Vertical Research
Kevin McCarthy
Price Target
$37
2026-01-07
downgrade
Buy
to
Hold
Reason
Vertical Research analyst Kevin McCarthy downgraded Axalta Coating to Hold from Buy with a $37 price target.
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