Should I Buy AXP? AXP 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy American Express Co (AXP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

359.150

1 Day change

1.28%

52 Week Range

387.490

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price is below the key pivot (357.4) with weakening momentum signals, and there is no Intellectia buy signal to override timing.
Fundamentals remain solid (Q4’25 EPS and net income up double-digits), but near-term upside looks capped by softer 2026 growth guidance and rising policy/regulatory headline risk.
Options positioning is mildly bullish (call-skew), yet that’s not translating into a clean technical entry; I’d wait for either a reclaim of ~357–367 or a cleaner dip toward support with stabilization.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-1) but contracting (bearish momentum is easing, not reversed).
RSI(6)=42.3: neutral-to-weak; not oversold enough to signal a strong “buy the dip,” but shows demand is not dominant.
Moving averages: converging MAs suggests consolidation/chop rather than a strong uptrend continuation.
Levels: Pre-market ~352.2 sits below Pivot 357.4 (near-term bearish bias). Key support S1 347.6 then S2 341.6; resistance R1 367.2 then R2 373.2.
Pattern-based odds (your dataset): skew negative over the next week (-5.51%) and slightly negative over the next month (-1.21%), which is unfavorable for an immediate entry.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put-call ratios (OI 0.55, Volume 0.44) indicate call-leaning sentiment (more bullish than bearish).
Activity: Today’s option volume 21,370 is elevated (~118% of 30-day average), suggesting increased attention around recent catalysts (earnings/guidance/news).
Volatility: 30D IV 28.81 vs historical vol 25.03 (options somewhat pricier than realized); IV percentile ~58 is mid-range (not “cheap” volatility).
Takeaway: Options flow is constructive, but not strong enough to negate the current below-pivot price action.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Q4 2025 results showed solid profitability momentum: net income +13.6% YoY and EPS +16.1% YoY.
- Membership fees are a meaningful, sticky revenue stream ($2.6B in Q4; ~24% of revenue), supporting business quality.
- Several large firms still carry Buy ratings with targets well above spot (e.g., GS/BofA previously at 420; Truist at 400 post-update), implying longer-term confidence.
- Trading trends: hedge funds and insiders are neutral (no notable recent selling pressure signaled in the provided data).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Guidance overhang: BTIG called 2026 guidance “disappointing” and expects downside; implies underlying growth deceleration despite the Platinum refresh.
- Policy/regulatory headline risk: Trump proposal to cap credit card APR at 10% could pressure issuer economics; broader payments/network regulation (e.g., CCCA discussion) keeps sentiment cautious for the space.
- Technical setup is not favorable for immediate entry: price is below pivot resistance with no clear reversal signal.
- Congress trading: balanced buys vs sells (4 purchases, 4 sales) suggests no strong “smart money” directional tell from policymakers in the last 90 days.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $14.284B, +5.46% YoY (steady growth).
Net income: $2.429B, +13.56% YoY (profit growth outpacing revenue).
EPS: $3.53, +16.12% YoY (strong per-share growth).
Gross margin: 85.58%, +0.74% YoY (incremental margin improvement).
Summary: fundamentals are strong, but the market is focusing more on forward growth pace and policy risk than on backward-looking beats.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: multiple firms trimmed price targets after Q4/model updates (JPM 385→375 Neutral; Truist 420→400 Buy; UBS 414→395 mentioned in news), indicating modest post-earnings de-risking.
Offsetting that, several banks raised targets earlier in January (e.g., GS 400→420 Buy; BofA 410→420 Buy; MS 370→395 Equal Weight), reflecting prior optimism into the print.
Current Street “pros”: strong brand, premium customer base, resilient fee revenue, and strong earnings trajectory.
Current Street “cons”: concern about 2026 growth deceleration, valuation sensitivity at these levels, and policy/regulatory risk headlines.
Bottom line on ratings: mixed-to-positive overall, but near-term tone has softened slightly due to guidance.

21 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AXP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AXP is 373.63 USD with a low forecast of 280 USD and a high forecast of 425 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

7 Buy

13 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 354.620

Low

280

Averages

373.63

High

425

Current: 354.620

Low

280

Averages

373.63

High

425

UBS

Erika Najarian

Neutral

downgrade

$414 -> $395

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

Reason

UBS

Erika Najarian

Price Target

$414 -> $395

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

UBS analyst Erika Najarian lowered the firm's price target on American Express to $395 from $414 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

JPMorgan

Neutral

downgrade

$385 -> $375

2026-02-02

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$385 -> $375

2026-02-02

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on American Express to $375 from $385 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the Q4 report.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for AXP

Unlock Now

AXP Should I Buy

AXP Should I Buy

Should You Buy American Express Co (AXP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch