American Express Company (AXP) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
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Overview
The earnings call summary indicates strong financial performance, with raised revenue growth guidance and strong EPS expectations. Product development is promising, with premium product demand and digital expansion plans. Market strategy shows optimism, despite competitive pressures. Expenses are well-managed, and financial health appears stable. Shareholder returns are not explicitly detailed, but the overall outlook is positive. The Q&A reveals confidence in strategic initiatives and risk management, with analysts generally positive. Adjustments for critical factors like raised guidance and strong metrics further support a positive sentiment.
Key Financial Performance
Full year revenues $72 billion, up 10% year-over-year. Reasons for change: Strong card member spending, double-digit card fee growth for 30 straight quarters, and excellent credit quality.
Earnings Per Share (EPS) $15.38, up 15% year-over-year (excluding the Accertify gain). Reasons for change: Consistent revenue growth and disciplined focus on premium products and high credit standards.
Net card fees $10 billion, up 18% year-over-year. Reasons for change: Success in acquiring new customers onto fee-paying products, ongoing product refreshes, and high retention rates.
Total spend (billed business) Up 8% year-over-year (FX adjusted). Reasons for change: Growth in goods and services, T&E, retail spending (up 10%), luxury retail merchants (up 15%), and restaurant spending (up 9%).
International spend Up 12% year-over-year (FX adjusted). Reasons for change: Broad-based growth across consumer and business customers and geographies.
Net interest income (NII) Up 12% year-over-year. Reasons for change: Growth in loans and receivables and continued demand for premium products.
Marketing expense $6.3 billion, up 4% year-over-year. Reasons for change: Increased investment in product value propositions and technology.
Technology spend $5 billion annually, up 11% year-over-year. Reasons for change: Investments in new capabilities, modernization of core systems, and enhancements in customer experiences.
Return on Equity (ROE) 34% for the full year. Reasons for change: Strong earnings generation and disciplined capital management.
Capital returned to shareholders $7.6 billion, including $2.3 billion in dividends and $5.3 billion in share repurchases. Reasons for change: Confidence in earnings sustainability and disciplined capital management.
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Operating Highlights
Product Refresh Strategy: Refreshed products in nearly a dozen countries, including new U.S. consumer and small business Platinum Cards.
New Membership Assets: Introduced new lounges, expanded hotel network, and launched partnerships like Toast.
Digital Enhancements: Rolled out new mobile experiences and capabilities, including a third-generation data and analytics platform.
Global Merchant Acceptance: Expanded to over 170 million locations worldwide.
International Growth: International spending grew 12% FX adjusted, with broad-based growth across geographies.
Technology Investments: Spent $5 billion annually on technology, including infrastructure, cybersecurity, and development activities.
Operational Efficiencies: Reduced service center calls per account by 25% over three years through digital self-servicing.
Marketing Investments: Invested $6.3 billion in marketing, up 75% since 2019, with a focus on high-return opportunities.
Customer Base Focus: Targeted premium customers, with millennials and Gen Z now the largest share of U.S. consumer spending.
Capital Returns: Planned 16% increase in quarterly dividend and returned $7.6 billion to shareholders in 2025.
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Risk or Challenges
Forward-looking statements: The company's future business and financial performance are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.
Credit performance: While credit performance remains strong, there is a risk of potential deterioration in credit quality, which could impact financial results.
Marketing investments: The company has significantly increased marketing investments, which may not yield the expected returns, posing a financial risk.
Technology investments: High levels of technology spending, including the rollout of new platforms and AI capabilities, may face implementation challenges or fail to deliver anticipated efficiencies.
Economic conditions: Economic uncertainties could impact customer spending and loan growth, affecting revenue and profitability.
Regulatory compliance: The company operates in a highly regulated environment, and changes in regulations could increase compliance costs or limit business operations.
Customer retention: Retention rates for premium products, such as the U.S. Platinum Card, are critical. Any decline in retention could negatively impact revenue.
Competitive pressures: Intense competition in the financial services sector could affect market share and profitability.
Supply chain and operational risks: Potential disruptions in technology infrastructure or supply chain could impact service delivery and customer satisfaction.
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Guidance & Outlook
2026 Revenue Growth: Expected to grow by 9% to 10%.
2026 EPS: Projected to be between $17.30 and $17.90.
Dividend Increase: Planned 16% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.95.
Marketing Expense: Expected to increase in low single digits in 2026, with a focus on generating efficiencies from investments in product value propositions and technology.
Technology Investments: Continued record-level investment in technology development, including enhancements to digital platforms and AI capabilities.
Net Interest Income (NII): Expected to grow faster than loans and receivables in 2026.
Card Fee Growth: Expected to pick up as the year progresses, exiting 2026 in the high teens.
Credit Metrics: Expected to remain generally stable in 2026 with some seasonal variation in provision across quarters.
Operating Expenses: Expected to grow in the mid-single digits in 2026.
Capital Returns: Planned increase in quarterly dividend and continued share repurchases, with a focus on maintaining capital well above regulatory minimum levels.
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Shareholder Return Plan
Quarterly Dividend Increase: Planned 16% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.95 per share in 2026.
Dividend Growth Since 2022: Dividend will be up by more than 80% since 2022.
Share Repurchases in 2025: $5.3 billion of share repurchases completed in 2025.
Share Count Reduction Since 2022: Share count reduced by 7% since 2022.
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Key Q&A
Q:Can you expand on the comments regarding allocating away from cash back and putting this towards fee-paying products? Do you expect this remix to continue, and how will it impact results going forward?
A:Stephen Squeri explained that the company is flexible with marketing investments and has seen strong demand for premium products like the Platinum Card. The focus is on acquiring revenue rather than just cards, and they are meeting revenue and ROI targets. Christophe Le Caillec added that variations in net cards acquired (NCA) are due to marketing plans and that the percentage of fee-paying cards in the U.S. consumer business increased by 8 percentage points year-over-year, indicating improved marketing efficiency.
Q:What are your thoughts on the competitive backdrop in commercial services, especially with competitors making M&A moves?
A:Stephen Squeri noted that the small business segment is strong, while the middle market shows some slowdown. He acknowledged the competitive space, citing Capital One's acquisition of Brex and American Express's acquisition of Center. Despite competition, American Express remains three times larger than its nearest competitor and is optimistic about its commercial strategy and product refreshes.
Q:Can you discuss the health of the premium consumer and the trajectory of U.S. consumer billed business?
A:Stephen Squeri highlighted strong momentum in premium products like the Platinum and Gold Cards, with restaurant spending up 9% and Resy restaurant spending up 20%. He attributed this to high engagement levels and the Platinum app. While not projecting more than 9% growth, he expressed confidence in continued momentum.
Q:How does the remix strategy towards fee-paying cards impact the trajectory of net card fees and long-term revenue growth?
A:Christophe Le Caillec stated that the portfolio is becoming more premium, with card fees reaching $10 billion and growing at 16%. He expects this growth rate to pick up as more Platinum Card Members renew at higher price points. The premium portfolio also shows strong credit performance, with stable delinquency and write-off rates.
Q:If credit expense remains low, is there incremental opportunity for investment, or will it fall to the bottom line?
A:Christophe Le Caillec explained that credit expenses are at a low limit of 2%, and efficiencies are being generated in operating expenses and marketing acquisition. While the company is committed to mid-teens EPS growth, there is flexibility to adjust investments based on performance across different lines.
Q:What impact do product refreshes like the Platinum Card have on engagement and spending?
A:Stephen Squeri noted that new customers quickly engage with refreshed products, while existing customers take some time but eventually increase engagement. The Platinum app has significantly boosted travel bookings and restaurant spending. Overall, product refreshes lead to higher engagement and spending.
Q:How do you view the 10% credit card cap proposal and its potential impact on American Express?
A:Stephen Squeri opposed the proposal, stating it would reduce the number of cards, line sizes, and negatively impact small businesses. He emphasized that affordability is important but does not see the cap as a solution.
Q:What are the greatest risks to your 2026 outlook: competitive dynamics, macroeconomic, or political factors?
A:Stephen Squeri identified macroeconomic and political factors as greater risks than competitive dynamics. He emphasized the company's focus on staying ahead of competitors and highlighted its strong customer service as a differentiator.
Q:How is American Express positioning itself in the small business arena given recent acquisitions and competition?
A:Stephen Squeri mentioned the Center acquisition, which will provide an expense management offering. He acknowledged the competitive landscape but expressed confidence in American Express's ability to compete effectively with its roadmap of product and technical capabilities.
Q:What are the priorities for 2026, and are there any high-impact initiatives?
A:Stephen Squeri outlined priorities such as winning in the premium space, building the commercial segment, expanding international coverage, and enhancing digital capabilities. He mentioned combining Resy and Tock as an initiative and emphasized continued product refreshes and partnerships.
Q:Is the cost to grow becoming too high, and how does American Express view this concern?
A:Stephen Squeri and Christophe Le Caillec argued that the cost to grow is not too high, citing low acquisition costs for Platinum Cards and long-term relationship economics. They emphasized the company's consistent growth trajectory and disciplined investment approach.
Q:How will the new data analytics platform and AI tools drive Card Member engagement?
A:Stephen Squeri explained that the new platform will enable better targeting and insights through large language models and data integration. This will enhance marketing efficiency and engagement, with benefits already being observed in some areas.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided directly addressing the specifics of conversations with the administration regarding the 10% credit card cap proposal, citing general opposition without elaborating on discussions. Additionally, while discussing the competitive landscape in the small business arena, details on specific product and technical capabilities were deferred to future announcements.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
Card Member
Consumer
FX
Platinum Card
Platinum Cards
VCE
app
aspiration
base
capability
capital return
card fee
colleague
consumer
demand engagement
development
digit
dividend
efficiency
expense
launch
marketing dollar
model
momentum
percentage
philosophy
premium
quality
retention rate
servicing
spend
spending
strength
technology
track record
value proposition
AXP Transcript
American Express Company (AXP) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive1-30
The earnings call summary indicates strong financial performance, with raised revenue growth guidance and strong EPS expectations. Product development is promising, with premium product demand and digital expansion plans. Market strategy shows optimism, despite competitive pressures. Expenses are well-managed, and financial health appears stable. Shareholder returns are not explicitly detailed, but the overall outlook is positive. The Q&A reveals confidence in strategic initiatives and risk management, with analysts generally positive. Adjustments for critical factors like raised guidance and strong metrics further support a positive sentiment.
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Unknown10-17
The earnings call revealed several negative factors: challenging market conditions, unfavorable contract renewals, increased financial leverage, and a significant net loss. Although there was revenue growth, it was mitigated by negative events like a cybersecurity incident. The Q&A highlighted uncertainties with CEO change, ongoing margin pressures, and financial restructuring efforts. These factors, combined with high leverage and negative cash flows, suggest a negative sentiment, likely resulting in a stock price decline of -2% to -8%.
AXP Slides
AXP Report
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