Should I Buy AWR? AWR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy American States Water Co (AWR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

70.470

1 Day change

-1.89%

52 Week Range

82.940

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and MACD is negatively expanding, suggesting downside momentum is still in control.
Price (~72 pre-market) is only slightly above near-term support (S1 ~71.54); a bounce is possible, but there is no Intellectia buy signal today to prioritize an aggressive entry.
Fundamentals are solid (Q3 2025 double-digit YoY growth in revenue/EPS), but without a near-term catalyst/news flow, the setup is more “wait for confirmation” than “buy now.”

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating a sustained downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.299 and negatively expanding = bearish momentum strengthening.
RSI: RSI_6 at 28.24 suggests the stock is getting stretched to the downside (near oversold), which can support a short-term bounce, but it is not a confirmed reversal signal by itself.
Key levels: Pivot 73.24 (needs reclaim to improve short-term tone). Support S1 71.54 then S2 70.49. Resistance R1 74.94 then R2 75.99.
Pattern-based forward bias (from similar candlesticks): ~50% chance of -1.47% next day, but positive skew over longer horizons (+1.59% next week, +6.24% next month).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment tilt: Put/Call ratios are low (OI PCR 0.59; Volume PCR 0.25), which generally reads as more bullish positioning than bearish.
Activity/participation: Very low absolute volume (todays volume 5 contracts), so the sentiment read is weakly-signaled.
Volatility: 30D IV 30.75 vs historical vol 22.97 (IV elevated). IV percentile 78.8 suggests options are relatively expensive vs the past year, often reflecting uncertainty or hedging demand.
Skew/interest: Calls have higher open interest (288 calls vs 170 puts), consistent with a mild bullish bias, but not decisive given thin trading.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

on 2026-02-24 after hours could re-rate the stock if results/guidance are strong.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

implies the market is pricing higher uncertainty, which can coincide with choppier or risk-off trading.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $182.716M, +12.94% YoY (good top-line acceleration).
Net income: $41.003M, +14.84% YoY (profit growth outpacing revenue).
EPS: $1.06, +11.58% YoY (solid earnings growth).
Gross margin: 74.05%, +0.33% YoY (stable-to-improving profitability).
Takeaway: Fundamentals are supportive for longer-horizon holders, but they are not currently overpowering the bearish technical tape.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating/price target change data was provided, so a recent trend in Wall Street upgrades/downgrades cannot be confirmed from the dataset.
Wall Street-style pros (based on available info): steady utility-like business profile and recent double-digit YoY growth in revenue/EPS.
Wall Street-style cons (based on available info): near-term price action is weak (downtrend), and there’s no visible near-term catalyst/news flow to force a re-rating before the next earnings date.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders shown as neutral (no significant recent directional activity).

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AWR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AWR is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 71.830

Low

Averages

High

Current: 71.830

Low

Averages

High

Wells Fargo

Underweight -> Equal Weight

upgrade

$76 -> $84

AI Analysis

2025-05-08

Reason