Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: there’s no proprietary buy signal today, limited near-term catalysts, and an earnings event (2026-02-12 pre-market) that can introduce abrupt moves.
Bullish elements exist (recent bullish initiations, hedge funds accumulating, bullish put/call ratios), but the setup is not “must-buy now” given only mildly positive technicals and weak latest-quarter fundamentals.
Better stance: Hold / wait for a cleaner breakout above ~16.75 (R1) or a pullback toward support (~14.75) to improve risk-reward.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.0422) → momentum improving.
RSI(6) 55.9 → neutral-to-slightly-bullish, not overbought.
Moving averages: converging → market is undecided; suggests consolidation rather than a strong trend.
Key levels: Pivot 15.75 (price ~15.99 slightly above pivot), Resistance R1 16.75 then R2 17.37; Support S1 14.75 then S2 14.14.
Pattern-based odds: next day ~flat (+0.36%), next week slightly negative (-1.46%), next month positive (+9.44%) → near-term chop, better skew over a month.
Sentiment: Put/Call ratios are very low (OI 0.43; Volume 0.08) → options positioning/flow skews bullish.
Activity: Today’s option volume (14) is ~6.97x the 30-day average (though absolute volume is small).
Volatility: 30D IV 123.75 vs historical vol 88.03 → options are pricing elevated moves.
IV rank/percentile: very low (IV rank 5.62; IV percentile 7.38) relative to its own history, despite high absolute IV → suggests IV has recently come down from even higher levels.
Gross margin: 0 (down -100% YoY) → consistent with no revenue / development-stage profile.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating trend: multiple new bullish initiations (no downgrades shown).
Guggenheim (2026-02-02): Initiated Buy, PT $50; thesis centered on IL-1β blockade and AVTX-009 differentiation; models ~$2.1B peak global sales.
Mizuho (2025-12-17): Initiated Outperform, PT $39; expects positive Phase II data mid-2026; projects $1B risk-adjusted 2035 worldwide sales.
Wall Street pros: strong upside implied by PTs, clear pipeline narrative (AVTX-009) with a defined clinical catalyst path.
Wall Street cons: valuation support depends heavily on clinical success; near-term financials provide little fundamental cushion.
Wall Street analysts forecast AVTX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVTX is 38 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 48 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AVTX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVTX is 38 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 48 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 13.150
Low
25
Averages
38
High
48
Current: 13.150
Low
25
Averages
38
High
48
Guggenheim
NULL -> Buy
initiated
$50
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
Reason
Guggenheim
Price Target
$50
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
initiated
NULL -> Buy
Reason
Guggenheim initiated coverage of Avalo Therapeutics with a Buy rating and $50 price target.
Guggenheim
initiated
$50
2026-02-02
Reason
Guggenheim
Price Target
$50
2026-02-02
initiated
Reason
As previously reported, Guggenheim initiated coverage of Avalo Therapeutics (AVTX) with a Buy rating and $50 price target, citing a positive view of IL-1beta blockade as a novel therapeutic approach for treatment of hidradenitis suppurativa. AVTX-009 is positioned to bridge the gap seen with AbbVie's (ABBV) Lutikizumab by offering a high-affinity, IL-1beta-specific targeting that optimizes the risk-benefit profile and leverages a superior pharmacokinetic foundation for less frequent dosing, the analyst tells investors. If approved, the firm models about $2.1B in peak global sales for AVTX-009, the analyst added.
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