Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price is in a clear downtrend (bearish moving averages + worsening MACD) and has slipped below the key support zone (S2 10.215) in pre-market.
Despite strong fundamental momentum (Q3 2025 growth and profitability), the tape is still weak and there are no proprietary buy signals today to justify jumping in immediately.
Positioning/sentiment is broadly constructive (call-skewed options, mostly positive ratings), but near-term price action suggests a better entry would come after reclaiming 10.215–10.825 and stabilizing.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.19 and negatively expanding → selling pressure is still building.
RSI(6): 10.225 → extremely oversold, which can enable a snapback bounce, but oversold can persist in strong downtrends.
Key levels: Pivot 11.813 (well above current), S1 10.825, S2 10.215. Pre-market 10.089 is below S2 → breakdown risk remains active until price recovers above ~10.215.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern stats imply modest upside over 1 month (+4.48%), but near-term expectation is flat-to-down (next week -0.22%), aligning with the current bearish tape.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put/Call OI ratio 0.67 and extremely call-heavy volume (put volume ratio 0.01) → bullish/speculative tilt.
Activity: Today’s option volume is far above the 30-day average (today vs avg ~514.6%), signaling heightened interest.
Volatility: IV (30d) 51.56 vs HV 54.08; IV percentile 75.6 → options are relatively expensive vs typical levels, often seen around uncertainty or sharp moves.
Interpretation: Options flow leans bullish, but elevated IV + a broken support on price action suggests traders are paying up for convexity rather than expressing “calm confidence.”
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
Strong operational momentum in latest reported quarter (Q3 2025): revenue +23.56% YoY and sharply higher profitability.
Secular tailwinds cited by analysts: data management, governance, and security demand (including longer-term Microsoft 365/Copilot-related governance needs).
Upcoming earnings event: QDEC 2025 earnings scheduled for 2026-02-26 after hours (potential catalyst if results/guide surprise positively).
Options positioning is call-skewed (supportive sentiment backdrop).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
with bearish MAs and deteriorating MACD → trend still pointing lower.
Net income: 13.017M, +396.83% YoY (major profitability improvement).
EPS: 0.06, +500% YoY.
Gross margin: 74.35%, down 2.30% YoY (watch for continued margin compression).
Congress trading: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Overall stance: Ratings skew positive (multiple Buy/Overweight/Outperform), but near-term caution is visible via widespread price target cuts.
Recent changes (trend):
2026-02-02 B. Riley: PT cut to $22 from $25, Buy maintained (estimates trimmed to align with consensus).
2025-11-07 cluster of cuts after Q3: Evercore (Outperform) to $18; Cantor (Overweight) to $18; Scotiabank (Outperform) to $17; Baird (Neutral) to $16; Citi (Neutral) to $16.
2025-12-29 Stephens initiated Overweight with $18.
Wall Street pros: secular tailwinds, platform position in M365 ecosystem, profitable growth narrative.
Wall Street cons: ARR/guidance caution cited around Q3/Q4 context and targets lowered, implying reduced near-term upside expectations despite long-term optimism.
Wall Street analysts forecast AVPT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVPT is 18.75 USD with a low forecast of 15 USD and a high forecast of 26 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AVPT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVPT is 18.75 USD with a low forecast of 15 USD and a high forecast of 26 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 10.160
Low
15
Averages
18.75
High
26
Current: 10.160
Low
15
Averages
18.75
High
26
B. Riley
B. Riley
Buy
downgrade
$25 -> $22
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
Reason
B. Riley
B. Riley
Price Target
$25 -> $22
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
downgrade
Buy
Reason
B. Riley lowered the firm's price target on AvePoint to $22 from $25 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm trimmed the company's estimates to bring them inline with consensus. It cites the earnings reduction for the target drop.
Stephens
Stephens
initiated
$18
2025-12-29
Reason
Stephens
Stephens
Price Target
$18
2025-12-29
initiated
Reason
Stephens initiated coverage of AvePoint with an Overweight rating and $18 price target. Secular tailwinds support an attractive growth outlook for data management and security, and the company is a well-positioned platform play with strength in M365, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm added that AvePoint has a "strong" track record of delivering profitable growth, and its valuation is attractive for an "under the radar" growth story.
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