Not a good buy right now: trend and momentum remain bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 + MACD worsening), and price is still below the key pivot (176.10).
Near-term catalyst is binary: Q4 earnings after-hours on 2026-02-04; with recent guidance concerns in the news flow, the risk/reward for an impatient buyer is not attractive at this moment.
If you must act immediately, the better setup is to wait for either (1) a reclaim above 176.10–179.13 with improving momentum, or (2) a clean dip toward 173.07–171.20 support that holds and reverses.
Trend: Bearish alignment (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) suggests a sustained downtrend rather than a simple pullback.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.429 and negatively expanding = downside momentum is strengthening, not stabilizing yet.
RSI: RSI_6 at 39.36 (weak/near-oversold but not a clear reversal signal).
Levels to watch: Pivot 176.10 is the key “line in the sand.” Support at 173.07 then 171.20; resistance at 179.13 then 181.00.
Pattern-based odds provided: ~40% chance of +1.17% next day, but -4.79% next week (near-term bias still negative).
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning (Open Interest): Put/Call OI ratio 1.62 is bearish/defensive (more puts outstanding than calls).
Flow (Volume): Put/Call volume ratio 0.48 indicates more call volume than put volume today, but overall volume is light (today’s volume 105 vs 30D average context at ~40%), so sentiment signal is not strong.
Volatility: IV30 at 21.84 vs historical vol 17.92 = options are pricing elevated event risk (consistent with earnings proximity). IV percentile 52 is mid-range (not “panic cheap” or “panic expensive”).
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
1
Positive Catalysts
Earnings catalyst (2026-02-04 after hours): a beat on FFO/revenue and improved 2026 commentary could quickly re-rate the stock.
Hedge fund activity: reported hedge funds are buying, with buying amount up ~200.92% QoQ (supportive medium-term sponsorship signal).
Analyst upside still exists from some bulls: Truist maintains Buy with a $203 target; Barclays previously turned more constructive citing improved outlook/earnings growth potential.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
suggests investors are still hedging for downside.
Net income: $380.6M, +2.36% YoY (slower than revenue).
EPS: 2.66, +1.92% YoY (modest growth).
Profitability: Gross margin 61.76%, down 1.17% YoY (some margin compression—important for REIT sentiment alongside FFO guidance).
Insider activity: Neutral/no significant trend last month.
Congress trading: No recent congress trading data available (last 90 days).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: more Neutral/Hold tilt and modest target trims into 2026 outlooks.
Key changes: Deutsche downgraded to Hold (PT $172); UBS kept Neutral (PT $191); Cantor kept Neutral (PT $179); Colliers downgraded to Neutral (PT $195). Truist stayed Buy (PT $203).
Wall Street pros: high-quality coastal apartment exposure, improving fundamentals as supply slows, potential sector-leading earnings growth (per more bullish notes), and institutional buying interest.
Wall Street cons: valuation seen as less compelling by some, near-term apartment softness and Sunbelt supply concerns, macro backdrop less favorable for REITs if rate cuts are limited, and guidance/FFO growth concerns showing up in the current news narrative.
Wall Street analysts forecast AVB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVB is 200.71 USD with a low forecast of 176.9 USD and a high forecast of 222.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AVB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVB is 200.71 USD with a low forecast of 176.9 USD and a high forecast of 222.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
10 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 169.700
Low
176.9
Averages
200.71
High
222.5
Current: 169.700
Low
176.9
Averages
200.71
High
222.5
RBC Capital
downgrade
$191 -> $187
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$191 -> $187
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
downgrade
Reason
RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on AvalonBay to $187 from $191. The REIT's results/guidance look the weakest among coastal peers, with the lowest Q4 blends, lowest 2026 same-store revenue growth and highest operating expense growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Deutsche Bank
Omotayo Okusanya
Hold
to
Buy
upgrade
2026-01-20
Reason
Deutsche Bank
Omotayo Okusanya
Price Target
2026-01-20
upgrade
Hold
to
Buy
Reason
Deutsche Bank analyst Omotayo Okusanya adjusted ratings in the real estate investment trust group as part of the firm's 2026 outlook. Deutsche upgraded to Buy from Hold shares of NNN REIT (NNN), Realty Income (O), Regency Centers (REG), Simon Property (SPG), and Sun Communities (SUI). The firm downgraded to Hold from Buy shares of AvalonBay (AVB), CubeSmart (CUBE), Equity Lifestyle (ELS), Equity Residential (EQR), Independence Realty Trust (IRT), National Health Investors (NHI) and Public Storage (PSA). The REIT group has underperformed the S&P 500 index in each of the last four years, and nine of the past 11 years, and Deutsche expects the streak to continue in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm forecasts a weighted average 10.3% stock return for its REIT coverage group versus Deutsche's equity strategy team's forecast of the S&P 500 hitting 8,000, or 16.9% upside versus 2025. The macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is not favorable for REITs with expectations of just one Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026, slower GDP growth, and higher unemployment, Deutsche Bank contends. It believes REIT earnings growth in 2026 is unlikely to match the S&P, making it difficult for growth oriented investors to be attracted to REITs as a whole.
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