Should I Buy AVAH? AVAH 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

7.850

1 Day change

1.95%

52 Week Range

10.320

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: momentum is still deteriorating (bearish MACD expansion) and the statistical pattern bias points to mild near-term downside.
Price is trading below the 8.42 pivot and is hovering near support; odds favor chop/down before a cleaner reversal.
Options positioning (very low put/call OI) looks bullish on paper, but today’s options volume is 0, so it’s not confirming active risk-on sentiment.
If you must act immediately, this is more of a “wait/hold” than a “buy now” until it reclaims the pivot area (~8.42) or shows momentum stabilization.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0852 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is strengthening, not bottoming yet.
RSI (6): 26.44 → short-term oversold/washed out, but oversold can persist while MACD keeps worsening.
Moving Averages: converging MAs → consolidation phase; not yet a clear trend reversal signal.
Key levels:
- Resistance/Pivot: 8.42 (needs reclaim to improve near-term setup)
- Supports: S1 7.904 (price 7.84 is slightly below), then S2 7.586
Pattern-based forward bias (similar candlesticks): ~70% chance of -1.59% next day, -0.42% next week, -0.72% next month → modest downside skew.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put/Call open interest ratio 0.14 (call-heavy) → superficially bullish positioning.
Activity: 0 options volume today → positioning is not being actively reinforced right now.
Volatility: IV30 83.13 vs historical vol 56.06 → options are pricing rich volatility; this often happens when uncertainty is elevated.
IV percentile/rank: IV percentile 43.43, IV rank 13.98 → elevated vs realized, but not extreme vs its own recent range.
Open interest: calls 1117 vs puts 151; total OI today 1268 (notable relative to average per provided metric), but without volume it’s less informative for immediate sentiment.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Prior operational improvements cited by analysts: state reimbursement increases, preferred payer expansion, disciplined cost control, and reduced leverage momentum (per BMO coverage note).
- Revenue growth remains strong (2025/Q3 +22.18% YoY), and gross margin improved (32.19%, +4.28% YoY).
- Analyst upside remains: BMO Outperform with $11 target; UBS target $9.50.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Near-term technicals are bearish (MACD worsening) and price is below pivot (8.42).
- Pattern-based forecast suggests mild negative drift over day/week/month.
- Profitability deterioration YoY in the latest quarter: net income and EPS sharply lower.
- Analyst risk callout: future Medicaid rate hikes may be limited, reducing an easy tailwind.
- No supportive near-term news catalysts in the last week (no fresh event-driven trigger).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $621.94M, +22.18% YoY → strong top-line growth.
Gross margin: 32.19%, +4.28% YoY → operating quality improving at the gross level.
Net income: $14.06M, -132.83% YoY and EPS $0.06 (-127.27% YoY) → profitability trend is currently a key concern despite revenue/margin gains (suggests higher below-the-line costs, charges, or tougher comps).
Ownership/trading context: hedge funds neutral, insiders neutral (no meaningful confirming accumulation signal provided).
Congress trading: no recent data available.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

2025-11-12 (BMO Capital): Initiated Outperform, PT $11; thesis driven by reimbursement/payer mix improvements, cost discipline, and potential M&A; notes Medicaid rate hike tailwind may moderate.
2025-11-07 (UBS): Neutral, PT raised $9.50 from $9.
Wall Street pros/cons (from provided notes):
- Pros: operating discipline, payer conversion opportunity, potential M&A, expectation for longer-term EBITDA growth.
- Cons: tailwind risk if Medicaid rate increases slow; profitability volatility reflected in recent YoY earnings decline; mixed rating stance (Outperform vs Neutral).

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AVAH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVAH is 10.33 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 12.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 7.700

Low

Averages

10.33

High

12.5

Current: 7.700

Low

Averages

10.33

High

12.5

BMO Capital

Outperform

initiated

$11

AI Analysis

2025-11-12

Reason

BMO Capital

Price Target

$11

AI Analysis

2025-11-12

initiated

Outperform

Reason

BMO Capital initiated coverage of Aveanna with an Outperform rating and $11 price target. Shares are up about 130% since early August on strong Q2 and Q3 results fueled by state reimbursement increases, preferred payer expansion, and disciplined cost control, which also lowered leverage, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While future Medicaid rate hikes may be limited, ongoing payer conversions, cost discipline, and potential M&A underpin expectations for 10+ long-term EBITDA growth, the firm says.

UBS

AJ Rice

Neutral

maintain

2025-11-07

Reason

UBS

AJ Rice

Price Target

2025-11-07

maintain

Neutral

Reason

UBS analyst AJ Rice raised the firm's price target on Aveanna to $9.50 from $9 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

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AVAH Should I Buy

AVAH Should I Buy

Should You Buy Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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