Should I Buy AUB? AUB 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

41.780

1 Day change

1.24%

52 Week Range

42.180

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now (momentum + insider support), but expect near-term chop: Trend is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, MACD expanding) and insiders are meaningfully increasing buying (+110% last month), which supports taking an entry immediately.
Upside case: Pattern-based projection points to ~+1.63% over the next week and ~+5.38% over the next month, and Street targets recently moved higher (top targets around $45).
Risk case: The stock is short-term stretched (RSI_6 ~72.9 and price sitting near resistance), so follow-through may be slower from here, but the broader trend still favors buyers.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish alignment (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.0719 and expanding = bullish momentum strengthening.
Overbought/extension: RSI_6 72.933 implies the stock is short-term stretched (more prone to pullbacks/pauses).
Levels: Pivot 39.243; resistance R1 40.417 (already slightly exceeded pre-market at 40.52), next resistance R2 41.143; support S1 38.068.
Tactical read (for an impatient buyer): Trend supports buying, but being just above R1 means near-term upside may be capped until it clears ~41.14 decisively.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (Open Interest): Put/Call OI 2.27 = heavier put positioning (often hedging or cautious sentiment).
Flow (Volume today): Put/Call volume 0.2 = call-heavy trading today (more bullish near-term speculation).
Volatility: IV30 65.59 vs HV 39.77 = options are pricing elevated moves; IV is also below the 5D avg (77.9), suggesting fear premium has been coming down.
Activity: Today’s volume vs 30D avg 184.62% = elevated attention, supportive of a momentum continuation attempt.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Insider buying: Insiders are buying and the buying amount is up ~110% over the last month (a strong confidence signal).
- Analyst target raises: Multiple firms raised targets recently (e.g., Stephens to $45, Morgan Stanley to $44, TD Cowen to $45).
- Technical momentum: Bullish MA stack + strengthening MACD supports continuation.
- Quant-style pattern outlook: Similar-pattern stats imply positive odds over 1-week and 1-month horizons.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Short-term overbought: RSI_6 ~72.9 and price near R2 (41.143) increases the chance of a near-term pullback or consolidation.
- Options OI skew cautious: Put-heavy open interest (P/C 2.27) implies meaningful hedging/defensive positioning remains.
- Earnings quality signal: Despite strong revenue growth, EPS fell YoY, which can limit multiple expansion.
- No fresh news catalysts: No recent-week news flow to push an immediate rerating.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $343.179M, +70.33% YoY (very strong top-line growth).
Net income: $89.173M, +21.41% YoY (solid profitability growth).
EPS: $0.63, -23.17% YoY (headline negative; suggests dilution and/or higher costs/one-offs despite higher net income).
Growth takeaway: Operational growth looks strong, but per-share earnings pressure is the key fundamental “con” to watch.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Price targets have generally moved up into early 2026.
Latest actions: Stephens Overweight with PT $45 (raised); TD Cowen Buy with PT $45 (raised); Morgan Stanley Equal Weight PT $44 (raised); KBW Market Perform PT $40 (raised).
Notable negative: Raymond James double downgraded to Market Perform (from Strong Buy) citing lower yields on new originations and accretion expectation changes.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
- Pros: Improving outlook post-earnings/investor day messaging, scale benefits, and multiple PT raises.
- Cons: Mixed conviction overall (several Market Perform/Equal Weight ratings) and concerns about loan yields/accretion dynamics.
Influential/political trading: No recent Congress trading data available (no signal from that channel).

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AUB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AUB is 42.5 USD with a low forecast of 38 USD and a high forecast of 45 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 41.270

Low

Averages

42.5

High

Current: 41.270

Low

Averages

42.5

High

Piper Sandler

Overweight

maintain

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

Reason

Piper Sandler

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Atlantic Union Bankshares to $47.50 from $41.50 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is also increasing its 2026/2027 estimates on the back of stronger Q4 2025 earnings, additional SASR-related costs saves to be realized, stronger loan growth expectations, and a higher net interest margin trajectory.

Stephens

Overweight

maintain

$43 -> $45

2026-01-26

Reason

Stephens

Price Target

$43 -> $45

2026-01-26

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Stephens raised the firm's price target on Atlantic Union Bankshares to $45 from $43 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm raised its FY26 pre-provision net revenue forecast by 1.3% due to a more constructive view of fees and expenses after earnings, the analyst tells investors.

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AUB Should I Buy

AUB Should I Buy

Should You Buy Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp (AUB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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