Should I Buy ATRA? ATRA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Atara Biotherapeutics Inc (ATRA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

4.880

1 Day change

8.20%

52 Week Range

19.140

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: the core near-term catalyst (FDA approval for tab-cel/EBVALLO) failed via a Complete Response Letter, which materially weakens the bull thesis.
Technicals show a fragile, oversold bounce setup at best (RSI low, MACD improving) but the broader trend remains bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5), which is unfavorable for an impatient entry.
Sentiment/flows are negative: hedge funds and insiders are selling aggressively, and the news cycle includes securities-fraud investigations.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: No signal on given stock today.
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked down (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), signaling the dominant trend is still down.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.171 and expanding suggests short-term rebound momentum, but this can be a "dead-cat bounce" after a major gap-down event.
RSI: RSI_6 = 27.748 (oversold/near-oversold), which can support short reflex rallies, but does not, by itself, confirm a durable bottom.
Key levels: Pivot 5.035 (price ~5.03 pre-market sitting on pivot). Near resistance R1 5.612 then R2 5.969; supports S1 4.459 then S2 4.102.
Pattern-based probability (provided): biased negative (next day -2.2%, next week -4.37%), which argues against buying now for an impatient timeline.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Put/Call ratios shown as 0.0, but the option dataset is sparse (many fields blank), limiting confidence in reading positioning.
Historical volatility is extremely elevated (HV ~105.86), consistent with a post-event, high-risk name where price can swing sharply without a stable trend.
Net takeaway: options data does not show a reliable bullish skew here; volatility suggests traders expect continued large moves (not necessarily up).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

expected a possible FDA approval and highlighted a $40M milestone upon approval (now impaired by the CRL, but still relevant if the company finds a credible path forward).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- 2026-01-12: FDA issued a Complete Response Letter; FDA also indicated the single-arm ALLELE trial is no longer adequate for accelerated approval due to design/analysis issues—this is a major regulatory setback.
- Stock already suffered a severe drawdown around the CRL event, and follow-through risk remains if financing/dilution or pipeline reprioritization emerges.
- 2026-01-29 and 2026-02-03: Pomerantz LLP investigations into potential securities fraud/unlawful business practices add headline and litigation overhang.
- Trading trends: Hedge funds selling increased ~192.53% QoQ; insiders selling increased ~685.89% MoM—strongly negative sentiment/positioning.
- Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available (no supportive signal from influential disclosed buying).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $3.453M, down -91.41% YoY (sharp contraction).
Net income: -$4.303M (still a loss; change shown as down -80.36% YoY in the snapshot), indicating the business is not yet self-funding.
EPS: -0.32, down -89.08% YoY.
Gross margin: 96.67%, up +19.23% YoY (high margin on low revenue does not offset the larger issue: collapsing top-line and reliance on external funding).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend (late 2025): Analysts were optimistic ahead of the PDUFA—Canaccord raised PT to $25 (from $17) with Buy (2025-12-19); Mizuho raised PT to $18 (from $16) with Outperform (2025-11-20).
What changed since: The FDA CRL (2026-01-12) directly undermines those pre-decision bullish assumptions; expect negative revisions/downgrades even though they are not listed in the provided data.
Wall Street pros (bull case): If the company can rework the regulatory path or pursue strategic alternatives effectively, the stock can rally sharply from depressed levels.
Wall Street cons (bear case): Regulatory credibility hit, uncertain timeline/cost to fix trial/approval path, litigation headlines, heavy selling by insiders/hedge funds—overall the risk/reward is unfavorable for buying now.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ATRA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ATRA is 21.5 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 4.510

Low

Averages

21.5

High

Current: 4.510

Low

Averages

21.5

High

Canaccord

Buy

maintain

$17 -> $25

AI Analysis

2025-12-19

Reason

Canaccord

Price Target

$17 -> $25

AI Analysis

2025-12-19

maintain

Buy

Reason

Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Atara Biotherapeutics to $25 from $17 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they see a reasonable chance for FDA approval of tab-cel in EBV+ post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease (EBV+ PTLD) by the upcoming action date of January 11, 2026. The $40M milestone upon approval will help to reinvigorate its pipeline.

Mizuho

Salim Syed

Outperform

maintain

$16 -> $18

2025-11-20

Reason

Mizuho

Salim Syed

Price Target

$16 -> $18

2025-11-20

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Mizuho analyst Salim Syed raised the firm's price target on Atara Biotherapeutics to $18 from $16 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm said it raised its price target on decreased operating expense, adding that it is watching the January 10, 2026 PDUFFA date for tab-cel and any word on the company's strategic alternatives valuation.

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ATRA Should I Buy

ATRA Should I Buy

Should You Buy Atara Biotherapeutics Inc (ATRA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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