Good buy right now for an impatient buyer: pre-market price (~170.92) is pushing to/newly above near-term resistance (R2 ~170.83) with positive momentum, and fundamentals/news are supportive.
Upside is likely moderate (regulated utility, mostly Neutral/Equal Weight Street stance), but the risk/reward is still favorable given the earnings/dividend catalyst and bullish options positioning.
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0975) and expanding, supporting continuation upside.
RSI: RSI(6) ~62.0 (neutral-to-strong), not overbought yet—room for continuation.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest a coiling phase that can break; pre-market price indicates an upside resolution.
Levels to watch: Pivot 166.864; Support S1 164.411 (then S2 162.896). Resistance R1 169.316; R2 170.831 (pre-market ~170.92 is a marginal breakout).
Near-term pattern-based expectation: Similar-pattern stats imply ~+0.93% next day, ~-0.08% next week (flat), and ~+2.77% next month (modest upside bias).
Volatility pricing: 30D IV ~14.88 vs HV ~13.7; IV percentile ~6.8 and IV rank ~2.13 → options are relatively cheap vs recent history (market not pricing large moves).
Activity: Today’s option volume 53 vs 30D average (91%) and OI ~2,646 (104% of avg) → steady participation, not a blow-off.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
Earnings catalyst: Fiscal Q1 results showed net income around $403M reported in news, beating expectations.
Political/influential flow: Congress trading over last 90 days shows 4 purchases and 0 sales (positive signal).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
and S1 (~164.41).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: Fiscal 2026/Q1 (ended Dec 31, 2025).
Growth: Revenue rose to ~$1.3426B (+14.17% YoY) and EPS increased to 2.44 (+9.42% YoY) → solid top-line and per-share growth.
Profitability: Gross margin ~63.46%, down ~1.99% YoY (slight compression).
Data note: The provided snapshot shows Net Income at 0 (-100% YoY), which conflicts with the news-reported ~$403M net income; operationally, the EPS and news flow indicate profitability remained strong this quarter.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets have mostly edged up into the $172–$180 range, but ratings remain cautious (Neutral/Equal Weight).
Most recent changes: BofA cut PT to $177 (from $185) and stayed Neutral; Morgan Stanley moved to Equal Weight earlier with PT ~$172 (later raised PT to $180 while keeping Equal Weight); Barclays kept Equal Weight with PT $167; UBS kept Neutral with PT $174; Mizuho kept Neutral with PT $180.
Wall Street pros: Regulated utility stability, steady dividend, rate-base/capex-driven growth.
Wall Street cons: Valuation seen as full; limited rerating potential without incremental catalysts beyond normal execution.
Wall Street analysts forecast ATO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ATO is 180.67 USD with a low forecast of 172 USD and a high forecast of 188 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ATO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ATO is 180.67 USD with a low forecast of 172 USD and a high forecast of 188 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 171.500
Low
172
Averages
180.67
High
188
Current: 171.500
Low
172
Averages
180.67
High
188
BofA
Neutral
downgrade
$185 -> $177
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$185 -> $177
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
BofA lowered the firm's price target on Atmos Energy to $177 from $185 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after updating the firm's FY26, FY27 and FY28 EPS estimates.
Barclays
Equal Weight
maintain
$165 -> $167
2026-01-27
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$165 -> $167
2026-01-27
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays raised the firm's price target on Atmos Energy to $167 from $165 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares.
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