Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: short-term setup looks stretched and vulnerable to a pullback.
Price is hovering just above the pivot (125.82) after a strong run; momentum signals show late-stage upside with increasing downside risk near resistance (133.39).
Options flow is short-term defensive (heavy put volume), and insider selling has accelerated materially.
News/earnings and 2026 outlook are constructive, so this is more a timing/entry issue than a broken story.
Trend/Momentum: RSI(6)=74.69 indicates an overbought/extended condition (upside can continue, but odds of a near-term shakeout rise).
MACD: Histogram -0.56 (below zero) but negatively contracting → bearish momentum is fading, yet trend is not cleanly re-accelerating higher.
Moving averages: Converging MAs → consolidation risk; price may chop or mean-revert rather than trend smoothly.
Key levels: Pivot 125.82 (near-term line in the sand); Resistance R1 133.39 then R2 138.06; Supports S1 118.25 then S2 113.58.
Pattern-based forward odds: model suggests ~50% chance of -4.93% next day and -8.47% next week (near-term skew negative), with +6.58% next month (medium-term constructive).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment split: Open interest P/C 0.86 is mildly bullish positioning, but volume P/C 2.51 shows traders actively buying puts short-term (near-term caution/hedging).
Activity: Total vol 1,137; call vol 324 vs put vol 813 → downside protection demand dominates today.
Volatility: 30D IV 42.8 vs HV 44.34 (IV slightly under realized); IV percentile 68.4 suggests options are relatively expensive vs much of the past year.
Positioning: Today’s open interest 27,335 and 120.81% vs 30D average → elevated positioning/attention, consistent with post-earnings repositioning.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Earnings/news tone: Q4 2025 EPS beat (non-GAAP EPS 0.93 vs expectations), and multiple headlines cite a positive 2026 outlook.
Operating quality: Gross margin improved to 23.23% (+9.58% YoY), supporting the “better mix/efficiency” narrative.
Bottom line: Net income $96.6M, -29.54% YoY; EPS $0.69, -26.60% YoY (earnings power down YoY despite margin improvement).
Headline context: Non-GAAP EPS beat and management outlook for 2026 was described as positive—supports a constructive medium-term view, but doesn’t negate near-term overbought risk.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Ratings/targets have moved up.
JPMorgan (2025-12-19): Reiterated Overweight; raised PT to $135 from $118 (more bullish into 2026 aero/defense outlook).
KeyBanc (2025-11-12/13): Upgraded to Overweight; PT $120; highlighted strong FCF outlook and potential buyback refresh plus leverage to exotic/nuclear materials.
Wall Street cons: Defense outlook described as more nuanced; near-term growth optics mixed (revenue light/YoY net income down) and insiders selling.
Wall Street analysts forecast ATI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ATI is 123 USD with a low forecast of 120 USD and a high forecast of 135 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ATI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ATI is 123 USD with a low forecast of 120 USD and a high forecast of 135 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 128.670
Low
120
Averages
123
High
135
Current: 128.670
Low
120
Averages
123
High
135
Deutsche Bank
Buy
maintain
$139 -> $150
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
Reason
Deutsche Bank
Price Target
$139 -> $150
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
Deutsche Bank raised the firm's price target on ATI to $150 from $139 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
JPMorgan
NULL
to
Overweight
maintain
$135 -> $150
2026-02-04
New
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$135 -> $150
2026-02-04
New
maintain
NULL
to
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on ATI to $150 from $135 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says the company's 2026 outlook "checks the box."
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