Should I Buy ASR? ASR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV (ASR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

367.920

1 Day change

1.92%

52 Week Range

372.360

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now at 365.23: price is extended (RSI 84+) and sitting near resistance, which makes a near-term pullback more likely.
No Intellectia buy triggers today (no AI Stock Picker, no SwingMax), so there’s no strong “buy-now” edge despite the bullish trend.
Options positioning (OI put-call > 1) and the recent analyst tone skew cautious, reinforcing “don’t chase at the open.”
If you must act immediately (impatient entry), the better decision is to hold/avoid initiating here rather than buy strength into overbought conditions.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 (uptrend intact).
Momentum: MACD histogram +2.407 and expanding = strong upside momentum.
Overbought: RSI_6 = 84.464 = stretched/overbought; historically increases odds of a short-term dip.
Key levels: Pivot 346.872 (more attractive risk area); Resistance R2 370.804 overhead; price 365.23 is already above R1 361.665 and closer to R2, reducing immediate upside room.
Pattern-based bias: Similar-pattern stats show ~60% chance of -1.28% next day, but positive skew over 1 week (+4.04%) and 1 month (+4.97%)—supports “uptrend, but entry timing is poor today.”

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Open Interest Put-Call = 1.47 suggests more protective/defensive positioning (bearish-to-cautious skew).
Volume: Very low options volume (todays volume 3; call volume 0) makes the volume put-call ratio less informative day-to-day.
Volatility: 30D IV ~36% vs HV ~17.85% = options are pricing meaningful movement; not “cheap vol.”
Positioning note: Today’s OI vs avg elevated (155.88), but with thin volume—signals hedging/positioning more than active bullish speculation.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Technical uptrend remains intact (bullish moving averages + positive MACD).
- Revenue growth is strong (2025/Q3 +19.09% YoY), indicating demand/top-line momentum.
- Lower rate environment (noted by analysts) can be a medium-term tailwind for valuation/multiples.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Overbought technical condition (RSI 84+) raises probability of near-term downside/mean reversion.
- Profitability deterioration: 2025/Q3 net income and EPS down ~36% YoY despite higher revenue.
- Analyst commentary on the airport peer set highlights subdued traffic momentum and lack of near-term catalysts (especially Mexico/Cancun dependence).
- News feed provided is largely U.S. bank-centric and not a clear positive catalyst for ASR specifically.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 470,992,528.19 (+19.09% YoY) — strong top-line growth.
Net Income: 113,623,035 (-36.42% YoY) — meaningful decline, margin/expense or one-off pressure implied.
EPS: 0.38 (-36.67% YoY) — earnings trend weakening.
Gross Margin: 98.55 (+0.26% YoY) — roughly stable, but bottom-line still fell, suggesting costs/other items weighed on earnings.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend (for Asur/ASR airport operator): bias has turned more cautious with multiple downgrades and price target trims.
Key actions: JPMorgan (2025-11-13) downgraded to Neutral citing lack of catalysts/subdued Mexico traffic; Morgan Stanley (2025-11-09) downgraded to Underweight citing lagging traffic growth and downside to earnings estimates; Barclays (2025-11-26) cut PT and kept Equal Weight.
Pros (Wall St view): long-term airport asset quality; potential tailwind from lower rates; relative strength vs some peers per Scotiabank commentary.
Cons (Wall St view): near-term traffic softness (Mexico/Cancun), fewer catalysts, and risk of earnings estimate pressure.
Data quality note: Several entries reference “ASR Nederland” (European insurer) which appears unrelated to Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste; the airport-operator notes above are the relevant ones.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ASR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASR is 332.5 USD with a low forecast of 300 USD and a high forecast of 365 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

0 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 361.000

Low

300

Averages

332.5

High

365

Current: 361.000

Low

300

Averages

332.5

High

365

Goldman Sachs

Andrew Baker

Neutral -> Buy

upgrade

€69

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Andrew Baker

Price Target

€69

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

upgrade

Neutral -> Buy

Reason

Goldman Sachs analyst Andrew Baker upgraded ASR Nederland to Buy from Neutral with a EUR 69 price target. The firm adjusted ratings in European insurance, saying that although near-term earnings risks are "relatively contained," weakening fundamentals make share share price appreciation more difficult.

JPMorgan

Neutral

maintain

2026-01-09

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

2026-01-09

maintain

Neutral

Reason

JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on ASR Nederland to EUR 66 from EUR 65 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

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ASR Should I Buy

ASR Should I Buy

Should You Buy Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV (ASR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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