Not a good buy right now: the trend is bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and MACD downside momentum is expanding.
Fundamentals are weakening (2025/Q3 revenue -37.77% YoY, margins down sharply), which matches the recent analyst guide-down narrative.
Insiders are selling aggressively (+288.04% selling over the last month), a near-term negative tell.
Options flow is very call-skewed (bullish sentiment), but without a confirming price reversal or proprietary buy signal, it looks more like speculative positioning than a high-conviction bottom.
Activity: Volume 897 is only ~57.65% of the 30-day average (not a high-conviction surge), while open interest is elevated vs average (today vs OI avg 105.71%).
Volatility: 30D IV 97.17 (very high) with IV percentile 64.4; IV is below recent 5D/10D averages (127+), implying IV has cooled but remains elevated.
Interpretation: Options positioning is optimistic, but the underlying price/technicals have not confirmed a reversal.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
could produce a technical bounce if buyers defend the level.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Clear bearish trend and worsening momentum (downward MA stack + expanding negative MACD).
Insider selling rising sharply (+288.04% over the last month), a negative near-term signal.
Weak operating performance and demand outlook: prior commentary ties softness to GM cutting EV production; risk of continued volume pressure.
Financial deterioration in 2025/Q3 (revenue, EPS, and gross margin all down materially YoY).
No supportive news flow in the last week and no Intellectia proprietary buy signals today to justify an impatient entry.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $73.017M, down -37.77% YoY (material top-line contraction).
Net income: -$6.334M, down -51.16% YoY (loss widened).
EPS: -0.08, down -52.94% YoY.
Gross margin: 28.49%, down -31.84% YoY (significant profitability pressure).
Setup into next report: QDEC 2025 earnings scheduled 2026-02-18 (pre-market), with Street expecting EPS around -0.27.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Barclays (2025-11-07): Kept Underweight; cut price target to $4 from $6 after a “tough” quarter and substantial full-year guide-down tied to EV production cuts.
Canaccord (2025-11-07): Kept Buy; cut price target to $5 from $10, citing solid balance sheet/minimal capex and a longer-term path back to healthier EBITDA and free cash flow.
Wall Street pros/cons view: Pros—liquidity and potential longer-term EBITDA recovery. Cons—near-term demand/guide pressure and execution risk, reflected in sharply reduced price targets and a still-cautious overall tone.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
Wall Street analysts forecast ASPN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASPN is 5 USD with a low forecast of 4 USD and a high forecast of 6 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ASPN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASPN is 5 USD with a low forecast of 4 USD and a high forecast of 6 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 3.080
Low
4
Averages
5
High
6
Current: 3.080
Low
4
Averages
5
High
6
Barclays
Underweight
downgrade
$6 -> $4
AI Analysis
2025-11-07
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$6 -> $4
AI Analysis
2025-11-07
downgrade
Underweight
Reason
Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Aspen Aerogels to $4 from $6 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The company reported a "tough" quarter with a substantial guide-down to full year numbers following General Motors' decision to cut production of electric vehicles, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Canaccord
George Gianarikas
Buy
downgrade
$10 -> $5
2025-11-07
Reason
Canaccord
George Gianarikas
Price Target
$10 -> $5
2025-11-07
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas lowered the firm's price target on Aspen Aerogels to $5 from $10 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said with a solid balance sheet and minimal capital expenditure needs, liquidity is expected to remain healthy. And looking past 2026, they expect a return to healthy levels of EBITDA with material flow through to free cash flow.
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