Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: ARWR is sitting just above key support (~70) but heading into earnings (2026-02-05 after hours) with very elevated implied volatility, and the pattern-based forward read is skewed negative (model suggests higher odds of a pullback over the next day/month).
Momentum is still bullish (trend + MACD + bullish MAs), so this is not a “sell the trend” setup—but the risk/reward at the current pre-market price (~71.09) looks unfavorable versus waiting for either (1) a clean break above ~74.17 resistance or (2) a post-earnings reset.
Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available (no signal from that channel).
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, consistent with an uptrend.
MACD: Histogram +0.311 and expanding → bullish momentum is strengthening.
RSI (6): 69.19 → near overbought; upside is possible, but short-term pullback risk is rising.
Key levels: Pivot 70.02 (near-term support). Resistance R1 74.17 then R2 76.74. Supports S1 65.86 then S2 63.29.
Near-term statistical/pattern read: Similar-pattern study implies ~60% chance of -2.98% next day, and -10.14% next month → favors caution on immediate entry.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: Put/Call ratios are very low (OI 0.31; volume 0.17) → market is leaning bullish/speculative via calls.
Activity: Today’s options volume 5268, with ~410x vs 30-day average, and open interest 30902 with elevated vs average → strong event-driven positioning.
Volatility: 30D IV 89.16 vs historical vol 50.3; IV percentile 88.8 → options are pricing a large move (earnings/catalyst premium is rich).
Takeaway: Options market is optimistic, but pricing is expensive—often coincides with “good news already priced” risk into catalysts.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
with prior commentary highlighting additive potential with GLP-1s and platform validation.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Event risk: Earnings imminent with elevated IV → higher probability of sharp move; the setup is less attractive for an impatient “buy now” entry.
Flow/news: Privium Fund Management reported selling 75,747 shares in Q4 (negative signal from an institutional holder, even if portfolio value also rose).
Quant/pattern tilt: Similar-candlestick analysis points to higher odds of near-term downside (next day/week/month).
Sentiment risk: Extremely bullish call skew (very low put/call) can be contrarian—if results/call commentary disappoints, downside can be abrupt.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter (2025/Q4): Revenue $256.47M, flat YoY (0.00%) → growth not evident in the snapshot.
Profitability: Net income - $23.75M (worse YoY per provided change), EPS -0.17 (weaker YoY per provided change) → earnings quality remains a concern despite strong gross margin.
Gross margin: 100 (as provided) → consistent with a biotech-style revenue mix; however, bottom-line losses persist.
Near-term focus: With earnings on 2026-02-05, guidance and pipeline/commercial updates are likely to drive the next repricing more than trailing-quarter numbers.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Clear upgrade/raise cycle in price targets from multiple firms (e.g., B. Riley to $101 from $61; H.C. Wainwright to $100 from $85; Morgan Stanley to $81 from $48; Chardan to $80 from $60; Goldman to $85 from $50 while staying Neutral).
Street “pros” view: Obesity RNAi data seen as “compelling/promising,” platform validation (TRiM), and a catalyst-heavy period supports bullish asymmetry; some see undervaluation versus obesity M&A comps.
Street “cons” view: Not all are bullish (e.g., Neutral/Market Perform voices), reflecting that obesity programs are still early and execution/clinical-update dependency remains high.
Net assessment: Wall Street tone is constructively bullish with rising targets, but the stock is still highly catalyst-driven—making the timing (right before earnings) the main issue for buying today.
Wall Street analysts forecast ARWR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARWR is 75.5 USD with a low forecast of 35 USD and a high forecast of 100 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ARWR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARWR is 75.5 USD with a low forecast of 35 USD and a high forecast of 100 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 64.640
Low
35
Averages
75.5
High
100
Current: 64.640
Low
35
Averages
75.5
High
100
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
downgrade
$81 -> $78
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$81 -> $78
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Arrowhead to $78 from $81 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Broad pipeline execution continues with multiple readouts expected later this year, including key Phase 3 SHTG data in Q3, the analyst tells investors in a research note. the firm added that while early familial chylomicronemia syndrome launch trends are promising, meaningful sales are not expected in 2026.
B. Riley
Madison El-Saadi
Buy
upgrade
$61 -> $101
2026-01-22
Reason
B. Riley
Madison El-Saadi
Price Target
$61 -> $101
2026-01-22
upgrade
Buy
Reason
B. Riley analyst Madison El-Saadi raised the firm's price target on Arrowhead to $101 from $61 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Positive siRNA-INHBE data and Arrowhead developments sufficiently de-risk INHBE biology, supporting conviction in Arrowhead ahead of a catalyst-heavy period with expected quarterly updates, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The name appears significantly undervalued relative to recent obesity M&A comps, the firm says.
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