Should I Buy ARVN? ARVN 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Arvinas Inc (ARVN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

13.480

1 Day change

4.01%

52 Week Range

20.380

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now (momentum/tactical buy): Price is holding above key moving averages with bullish structure, and options positioning is strongly call-skewed—good setup for an impatient entry.
Trade plan (near-term): Buying near the pivot zone (~13.10–13.40) targets a push toward R1 ~13.94 and potentially R2 ~14.46 if momentum persists.
What makes it not a “back up the truck” buy: No Intellectia AI/Swing signals today, fundamentals show shrinking revenue and deeper losses, and biotech catalysts are binary.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish alignment in moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests an active uptrend.
MACD: Histogram 0.113 above zero but positively contracting → upside momentum remains, though it’s cooling (risk of consolidation).
RSI (6): 65.95 → bullish/upper-neutral; not overbought, but getting closer to “extended” territory.
Key levels: Pivot 13.098 (near current pre-market 13.39), Resistance 13.938 (R1) then 14.458 (R2); Support 12.258 (S1) then 11.738 (S2).
Pattern-based odds (given): Moderate bullish bias (next week and month skew positive), supportive for a near-term long.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Very low put/call ratios (OI 0.21, volume 0.23) = bullish positioning / upside bias.
Activity: Today’s options volume 6,673 vs 30D avg (given metric) 822.81% → unusual activity consistent with directional interest.
Volatility: 30D IV 73.18% vs HV 69.74% (IV slightly rich). IV rank 22 / IV percentile 39.6 → elevated but not extreme; market is not pricing a peak “panic” premium.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Wall Street support: Recent upgrades/raised targets (Citi upgrade to Buy with PT $15; Barclays PT $18; Stephens PT $15) reinforce a bullish medium-term narrative.
- Pipeline optionality: Analysts cite forward value in ARV-393, ARV-102, ARV-806 with encouraging early data.
- Upcoming event: Next earnings 2026-02-23 pre-market (event-driven volatility can create upside if updates are favorable).
- Positioning: Options market shows strong call skew (supportive risk-on sentiment).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- No fresh news this week: Lacks a near-term headline catalyst to accelerate the move immediately.
- Momentum cooling: MACD histogram still positive but contracting → risk of churn/pullback before another leg up.
- Biotech binary risk: Pipeline-driven valuation can swing sharply on trial/readout guidance.
- Institutional/insider tone: Hedge funds and insiders are neutral (no strong “smart money” confirmation recently).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $41.9M, -59.08% YoY → meaningful top-line contraction.
Net income: -$35.1M, -28.66% YoY → losses worsened YoY.
EPS: -0.48, -29.41% YoY → profitability trending weaker.
Gross margin: 100% (likely mix-driven/recognition dynamics rather than “core product” margin signal). Overall: financially weaker trend, so the bull case leans on pipeline progress rather than current operating growth.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Net positive—upgrades/raised targets into 2026.
Key changes:
- Citi (2026-01-06) upgraded to Buy from Neutral; PT $15 (from $10), highlighting SMID-cap biotech opportunity and near-term catalysts.
- Barclays (2025-12-17) maintained Overweight, PT raised to $18.
- Stephens (2025-11-10) maintained Overweight, PT raised to $15, citing value in ARV-393/102/806.
Wall Street pros: Pipeline optionality + multiple bullish ratings and mid-teens targets above current price.
Wall Street cons: Targets are not extremely high vs price (suggesting “measured” upside), and the thesis depends on clinical execution rather than strong current financial growth.
Influential/politician trading: No recent congress trading data available (no observed political-flow signal).

10 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ARVN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARVN is 14.25 USD with a low forecast of 6 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

3 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 12.960

Low

Averages

14.25

High

Current: 12.960

Low

Averages

14.25

High

Citi

Yigal Nochomovitz

Neutral -> Buy

upgrade

$10 -> $15

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

Reason

Citi

Yigal Nochomovitz

Price Target

$10 -> $15

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

upgrade

Neutral -> Buy

Reason

Citi analyst Yigal Nochomovitz upgraded Arvinas to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $15, up from $10. The firm sees opportunities in SMID-cap biotech heading into 2026 for commercial or near-commercial stage companies. As part of its 2026 outlook, Citi upgraded both Arvinas and Krystal Biotech while adding an "upside 90-day catalyst watch" on Olema Oncology.

Cantor Fitzgerald

Overweight

initiated

$38

2025-12-22

Reason

Cantor Fitzgerald

Price Target

$38

2025-12-22

initiated

Overweight

Reason

Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of ArriVent Biopharma with an Overweight rating. Firmonertinib is approved in China for first-line non-small cell lung cancer with classical EGFR mutations, notes the analyst, who views the tyrosine kinase inhibitor as positioned to be a first-in-class TKI for first-line uncommon/non-classical EGFR mutations where unmet need is high in the U.S. The firm is assigning 60%-plus probability of success for two Phase 3 readouts and models unadjusted peak sales of $2B in the bull case. The firm estimates the shares are worth $38, implying 71% upside, the analyst added.

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ARVN Should I Buy

ARVN Should I Buy

Should You Buy Arvinas Inc (ARVN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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