Should I Buy ARR? ARR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

17.690

1 Day change

0.17%

52 Week Range

19.310

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: momentum is still bearish (MACD histogram negative and expanding) and price is trading below the key pivot (17.92).
The stock is sitting just above near-term support (S1 17.295); downside risk to S2 (16.91) is meaningful if that level fails.
Bullish Wall Street backdrop (recent upgrades + higher price targets) and strong recent quarter growth improve the medium-term case, but the current tape/insider activity does not offer a clean “buy now” setup.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: Bearish short-term momentum—MACD histogram is -0.207 and negatively expanding (selling pressure increasing).
RSI: RSI_6 at 29.237 suggests the stock is getting stretched to the downside (near oversold conditions), which can spark bounces, but it is not a confirmed reversal signal by itself.
Moving averages: Converging MAs indicate indecision/transition, but momentum indicators lean downside.
Key levels: Pivot 17.92 is the upside line in the sand; resistance at 18.545 then 18.93. Support at 17.295, then 16.91.
Pattern-based forward odds: Similar-pattern stats imply mildly negative near-term skew (next day 40% chance to -1.21%) with only modest expected upside over a week (+1.84%).

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning vs flow: Open interest put/call of 1.41 suggests heavier put positioning/hedging (cautious sentiment), while today’s put/call volume of 0.14 shows call-heavy trading flow (more bullish intraday activity).
Volatility: Implied vol (30D) ~10.25 vs historical vol ~18.42; IV percentile ~0.8 / IV rank ~0.74 implies options are priced with relatively low implied volatility versus recent realized movement—less fear priced-in.
Activity: Today’s volume (552) is elevated vs 30D average (15.75x), indicating heightened interest; however, that can cut both ways without directional confirmation from price action.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

point to perceived undervaluation vs agency mREIT peers.
on 2026-02-18 after hours can re-price the stock if book value/spread dynamics trend favorably (as cited by the upgrade note).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insider activity: Insiders are selling, and selling increased 173.22% over the last month—often a near-term sentiment headwind.
- Technical pressure: MACD downtrend signal is strengthening; price is below pivot and close to support (risk of support break).
- No supportive news flow: No positive news catalysts in the last week to interrupt the current momentum.
- Macro sensitivity: As a mortgage REIT, ARR is sensitive to rates/spreads; adverse spread moves can pressure book value and sentiment.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 344.2M, up 70.78% YoY (strong top-line acceleration).
Net income: 156.256M, up 148.48% YoY (profitability improved sharply).
EPS: 1.49, up 23.14% YoY (earnings growth positive).
Gross margin: 50.13, up 32.37% YoY (margin expansion supports earnings durability).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Clear shift more bullish.
2025-12-15: Compass Point initiated at Buy with $18.50 target.
2026-01-15 / 2026-01-16: JonesResearch upgraded to Buy from Hold with a $20.50 target, citing improved spread dynamics and expected book value lift (implying undervaluation vs peers).
Wall Street pros: Upgrades and higher targets suggest expected share outperformance and improving book value.
Wall Street cons: The thesis is highly dependent on spreads/rates staying favorable; if spreads move against them, book value and the stock can re-rate down quickly.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ARR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARR is 18.5 USD with a low forecast of 18.5 USD and a high forecast of 18.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 17.660

Low

18.5

Averages

18.5

High

18.5

Current: 17.660

Low

18.5

Averages

18.5

High

18.5

JonesResearch

Hold

Buy

upgrade

$20.50

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

Reason

JonesResearch

Price Target

$20.50

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

upgrade

Hold

Buy

Reason

JonesResearch upgraded Armour Residential REIT to Buy from Hold with a $20.50 price target. The firm says that given the changes seen in spreads, which boost the company's estimated book value, it sees on track for share outperformance in the near term. The expected increase in book value indicates Armour shares are undervalued versus its agency peers, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

JonesResearch

Hold

Buy

upgrade

$20.50

2026-01-15

Reason

JonesResearch

Price Target

$20.50

2026-01-15

upgrade

Hold

Buy

Reason

JonesResearch upgraded Armour Residential REIT to Buy from Hold with a $20.50 price target.

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ARR Should I Buy

ARR Should I Buy

Should You Buy ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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