Should I Buy AROW? AROW 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Arrow Financial Corp (AROW) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

36.050

1 Day change

0.75%

52 Week Range

36.440

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the stock is overbought (RSI_6 ~84) and trading near/above key resistance, which increases near-term pullback risk.
Trend remains bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 and MACD expanding), so it’s attractive on a dip, not on a chase.
Options positioning shows heavy put open interest (bearish/hedged sentiment), which argues against aggressively buying at current levels.
Fundamentals/news are clearly positive (record Q4, dividend hike), supporting a constructive medium-term view, but timing is unfavorable today.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages aligned (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200).
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.271 and expanding → upside momentum still present.
Overbought: RSI_6 84.48 → statistically stretched; higher odds of consolidation/pullback.
Levels: Pivot 34.083. Resistance: R1 35.709 (already exceeded pre-market at 35.9), next R2 36.713. Supports: S1 32.458, S2 31.454.
Pattern-based projection: Similar-pattern stats suggest +0.55% next day, +3.27% next week, +21% next month (probabilistic, not guaranteed), but near-term entry is extended versus pivot.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Open interest is put-heavy (puts 187 vs calls 43; OI put/call 4.35) → sentiment/hedging leans cautious/bearish.
Activity: Extremely low volume (total volume ~1; put volume 0) → today’s tape is thin, so sentiment signal comes mainly from OI rather than active trading.
Volatility: 30D IV 55.34 with **low IV percentile (11.55)** / IV rank (~15.1) → IV is relatively low versus its own history, but absolute IV is still elevated for many traditional bank names; market is not pricing a major near-term shock compared with its past.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Record Q4 results (2025/Q4): GAAP EPS $0.85 and strong revenue print highlighted in news.
- Dividend tailwind: Quarterly dividend raised to $0.30 (+3.4%), payable Feb 25 → supportive for income-focused demand.
- Technical uptrend: Bullish MA stack and positive MACD expansion support continued trend-following interest.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Overbought condition: RSI_6 ~84 increases risk of a fast pullback/consolidation, especially after a sharp move into resistance.
- Options skew bearish/defensive: High put/call open interest ratio (4.35) suggests investors are positioning defensively.
- No proprietary buy trigger today: Neither AI Stock Picker nor SwingMax is flagging a “must-buy-now” setup.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4
Revenue: $42.94M, +26.61% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Net income: $14.01M, +213.49% YoY (major profitability improvement).
EPS: $0.85, +214.81% YoY (very strong earnings acceleration).
Overall read: quarter shows a clear growth re-acceleration, consistent with the positive price trend and dividend increase.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating/price target change data was provided, so recent upgrades/downgrades and target revisions cannot be confirmed from this dataset.
Wall Street-style pros (based on provided fundamentals): record quarter, sharp YoY EPS and net income growth, dividend hike, bullish trend.
Wall Street-style cons (based on provided positioning/technicals): overbought technicals near resistance; options open interest skew suggests hedging/caution.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are reported neutral with no significant recent trends.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AROW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AROW is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy