Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price is in a bearish trend (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) with weakening momentum (MACD histogram negative and expanding).
The stock is sitting just above near-term support (53.86); downside risk to the next support (52.30) remains meaningful if support breaks.
Options flow is mixed-to-cautious short term (volume put/call > 1) despite bullish-ish positioning in open interest (OI put/call < 1), suggesting traders are hedging into elevated uncertainty.
News catalysts (debt tender offers + asset dispositions) help balance sheet optics, but analyst commentary still points to a slow, multi-year life-science demand recovery—limiting near-term upside.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.51 and negatively expanding = selling pressure is increasing.
RSI(6): 35.16 (not oversold, but weak) suggests downside pressure without a clear reversal signal yet.
Key levels: Immediate support S1 ~53.86 (price ~54.17 pre-market). If lost, next support S2 ~52.30. Overhead pivot/resistance ~56.39 then ~58.92.
Pattern-based forward read (provided): modestly negative next day (-0.44%) but mildly positive bias 1-week (+0.87%) and 1-month (+4.08%)—still not strong enough to override the current bearish tape.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment split: OI put/call 0.53 implies more calls than puts outstanding (positioning not overly bearish), but volume put/call 1.53 implies puts leading today (near-term hedging/defensive).
Volatility: IV percentile 98.4 (very elevated vs its own history) + 30D IV 52.44 vs HV 71.06 suggests the market is pricing substantial uncertainty; options are not “cheap.”
Activity: Today’s volume 1,580 is below recent averages (5D avg ~1,769; 10D avg ~2,081), so the bearish volume skew may not be a high-conviction signal.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
Capital structure actions: cash tender offers for up to $800M of senior notes can reduce financing costs and improve maturity profile optics.
Q4 update included meaningful asset dispositions (~$1.5B) and reported solid leasing performance—helps liquidity and leverage narrative.
If biotech/life-science funding sentiment improves, ARE could benefit as a “quality operator” in the space (also reflected in some higher PTs like $60-$67).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical setup remains weak (bearish MAs + negative MACD expansion), increasing risk of another leg down if support fails.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $647.4M, down -21.15% YoY (clear top-line contraction).
Profitability: Net income -$1.081B (a large loss; reported as “up” YoY but remains deeply negative), EPS -6.35.
Gross margin: 14.33%, down -53.03% YoY, indicating meaningful margin compression.
Overall: financial trends are currently deteriorating, consistent with management/Street caution on demand and earnings visibility.
Price targets have been reset lower since Investor Day (notable large cut: Deutsche Bank $83 -> $45; multiple cuts into the high-$40s/low-$60s range).
Latest actions: Goldman initiated Neutral with $60 PT (high-quality assets, but slow life-science recovery); BofA raised PT slightly to $61 but stayed Neutral; Morgan Stanley initiated Equal Weight with $55.
Wall Street pros: high-quality portfolio, balance sheet actions (dispositions/tenders), potential upside if life-science demand rebounds.
Wall Street cons: multi-year recovery timeline, occupancy/demand uncertainty, weaker earnings visibility and pressured fundamentals.
Wall Street analysts forecast ARE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARE is 51.53 USD with a low forecast of 15.84 USD and a high forecast of 67 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ARE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARE is 51.53 USD with a low forecast of 15.84 USD and a high forecast of 67 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
11 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 55.140
Low
15.84
Averages
51.53
High
67
Current: 55.140
Low
15.84
Averages
51.53
High
67
Goldman Sachs
Neutral
initiated
$60
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
New
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$60
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
New
initiated
Neutral
Reason
Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of Alexandria Real Estate with a Neutral rating and $60 price target. The firm says the company's "high-quality" assets are balanced by "systemic pressures" on the U.S. life science industry. Goldman's lab space demand model indicates an "extended and gradual" life science recovery with net absorption only turning sustainably positive in 2027, the analyst tells investors in a research note. It cites an extended recovery timeline for Alexandria's tenant demand and uncertainty around the life science ecosystem for the Neutral rating.
BofA
Neutral
maintain
$60 -> $61
2026-01-29
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$60 -> $61
2026-01-29
maintain
Neutral
Reason
BofA raised the firm's price target on Alexandria Real Estate to $61 from $60 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after a Q4 beat on one-time items. While the firm credits management for what it calls "their measured commentary" despite increasingly bullish headlines around biotech, it says it still lacks visibility into the return of sustained demand.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for ARE
