Should I Buy ARCT? ARCT 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc (ARCT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

7.570

1 Day change

7.83%

52 Week Range

24.170

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now (speculative biotech entry): price (~7.44 pre-market) is sitting near the pivot (7.46) and close to levels where analysts argue the stock is trading near cash/value of pipeline optionality.
Near-term setup favors a tradable bounce toward 7.82–8.05 if it can hold above 7.10 support.
Sentiment is not euphoric (OI put/call ~1.0) while volume skews bullish (put/call volume 0.5) on elevated activity—often consistent with risk-on positioning at depressed prices.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: MAs are converging → consolidation/base behavior rather than a strong trend.
Momentum: MACD histogram above 0 (0.0235) but positively contracting → bullish bias losing steam; suggests chop unless price re-accelerates.
RSI (6): 45.85 → neutral; not overbought, leaving room for an upside push.
Key levels:
- Pivot: 7.46 (current price is essentially testing this)
- Support: 7.10 (S1), then 6.87 (S2)
- Resistance: 7.82 (R1), then 8.05 (R2)
Pattern-based expectation: similar-pattern stats imply modest upside next day/week but weaker 1-month odds (model shows -5.8% next month), fitting a short-horizon bounce thesis rather than a set-and-forget trend.

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (Open Interest): Put/Call OI 1.01 → essentially neutral/balanced.
Flow (Volume): Put/Call volume 0.5 with calls (174) > puts (87) → bullish tilt in today’s activity.
Activity spike: today’s volume is 4.69x the 30-day average → traders are paying attention.
Volatility: 30D IV 116.6%, IV percentile 76.4 → options are expensive; market is pricing big moves even though no fresh news was reported this week.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Pipeline catalysts into 1H 2026: management commentary (via analyst notes) points to potential regulatory alignment discussions for ARCT-810 (OTC deficiency) and progress in ARCT-032 (CF) as key inflection points.
- Valuation narrative from sell-side: Roth argues shares imply near-zero success probability for key programs, framing asymmetric upside if clinical/regulatory progress continues.
- Losses narrowing: operating trajectory improved YoY (EPS and net loss improved), which can support sentiment at depressed prices.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Revenue contraction: latest quarter revenue fell sharply YoY, which can keep pressure on the stock absent a clear near-term commercial re-acceleration.
- KOSTAIVE U.S. uncertainty: commentary indicates U.S. BLA timing has been delayed indefinitely due to regulatory changes/viability concerns, reducing near-term commercial clarity.
- No fresh news this week: without a new catalyst, price action may remain range-bound around the 7.10–7.82 band.

Financial Performance

2025/Q3 (latest provided):
- Revenue: $17.15M, -58.84% YoY (clear top-line weakness)
- Net income: - $13.45M, improved 94.81% YoY (loss materially narrowed)
- EPS: -0.49, improved 88.46% YoY
- Gross margin: 100% (stable at a high level)
Takeaway: fundamentals show shrinking revenue but improving profitability metrics, consistent with a biotech where pipeline progress (not current sales) is the primary driver.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating/target trend is mixed and volatile:
- Roth (2026-01-22) initiated Buy, PT $20 (strong upside framing; “mispriced” thesis).
- Citi (2026-01-06) maintained Neutral, cut PT $7 (more cautious; near current price).
- Citi (2025-11-13) maintained Neutral, cut PT $9 from $12.
- Piper Sandler (2025-11-11) maintained Overweight, but cut PT $72 from $140 (still bullish, but acknowledges setbacks/uncertainty; focuses on 1H 2026 inflection).
Wall Street pros: asymmetric upside if ARCT-810/ARCT-032 deliver and regulatory paths clarify; some analysts view current price as overly pessimistic.
Wall Street cons: commercial/regulatory uncertainty (notably KOSTAIVE U.S.) and inconsistent revenue keep cautious firms (e.g., Citi) on the sidelines.

9 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ARCT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARCT is 30.57 USD with a low forecast of 7 USD and a high forecast of 72 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 7.020

Low

Averages

30.57

High

Current: 7.020

Low

Averages

30.57

High

Roth Capital

Buy

initiated

$20

AI Analysis

2026-01-22

Reason

Roth Capital

Price Target

$20

AI Analysis

2026-01-22

initiated

Buy

Reason

Roth Capital initiated coverage of Arcturus Therapeutics with a Buy rating and $20 price target. The company has two mid-stage programs with evidence of clinical activity and over $1B of peak sales potential, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Roth says Arcturus shares trade near its cash position, implying 0% probability of success for both assets. This makes the company "potentially one of the most mispriced stocks in rare disease," the firm contends.

Citi

Neutral

downgrade

$9 -> $7

2026-01-06

Reason

Citi

Price Target

$9 -> $7

2026-01-06

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

Citi lowered the firm's price target on Arcturus Therapeutics to $7 from $9 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm sees opportunities in SMID-cap biotech heading into 2026 for commercial or near-commercial stage companies. As part of its 2026 outlook, Citi upgraded both Arvinas and Krystal Biotech while adding an "upside 90-day catalyst watch" on Olema Oncology.

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ARCT Should I Buy

ARCT Should I Buy

Should You Buy Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc (ARCT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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