Should I Buy ARCB? ARCB 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy ArcBest Corp (ARCB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

111.960

1 Day change

2.11%

52 Week Range

112.920

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price (~103.77 pre-market) is extended/overbought while fundamentals just printed a weak quarter.
Upside looks limited at this level: stock is already near/above many fresh Street targets (several Neutral targets in the $81–$94 range) and close to key resistance.
If you must act today: better framed as a hold/avoid chasing rather than initiating a new buy at current pre-market levels.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages aligned SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 (uptrend intact).
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.746 and expanding (bullish momentum still building).
Overbought: RSI_6 83.31 signals the move is stretched; odds of a near-term pullback/consolidation are elevated.
Levels: Pivot 91.82; Resistance R1 101.31 (already reclaimed), next R2 107.17 (near-term cap). Support S1 82.34.
Pattern-based forward bias: Similar-pattern stats imply ~-0.99% next day, -2.76% next week, +7.95% next month (near-term chop/down before potential recovery).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (OI): Put/Call OI 0.39 = call-heavy open interest (constructive/bullish skew).
But no active tape: today option volume is 0, so the sentiment signal is more “positioning” than “fresh conviction.”
Volatility: 30D IV 53.49 vs historical vol 46.2 (options priced rich); IV percentile 68.8 suggests elevated option pricing.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Revenue beat: Q4 revenue $972.7M came in above expectations despite YoY decline.
- Q1 guidance commentary (sell-side takeaways): some analysts cite better-than-expected Q1 outlook on stronger asset-based volume/margins.
- Insider behavior: insiders are net buying, with buying amount up ~284.68% over the last month.
- Industry setup (analyst narrative): tighter capacity/regulatory attrition themes could support pricing into 2026.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings miss and loss: Q4 adjusted EPS missed; company posted a net loss (event-driven negative tone).
- Profitability deterioration: sharp YoY decline in net income/EPS (details in financial section).
- Technically overheated: RSI overbought and price is near the next resistance zone (~107), which is a poor “chase” setup.
- Hedge funds: described as Neutral with no significant last-quarter trend.
- No politician/congress catalyst: no recent congress trading data available (no “influential buyer” tailwind identified).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4
- Revenue: $972.7M, -2.89% YoY (top-line contraction).
- Net Income: -$8.12M, -127.95% YoY (swung to a loss).
- EPS: -0.36, -129.27% YoY (material deterioration).
- Gross margin: 80.83, -2.30% YoY (margin pressure).
Growth read-through: the quarter shows weakening profitability and contracting revenue—this is not a “clean” growth setup at today’s elevated technicals.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: price targets were mostly raised into/after the earnings window across multiple firms, but there’s dispersion and at least one cut (Stifel trimmed to $94 from $96 while staying Buy).
Where targets sit vs price (~103.8):
- Bulls: Citi $105 Buy (only slightly above current); Goldman $100 Buy (below current).
- Neutrals: JPM $81, Wells Fargo $85, BofA $94 (all well below current).
- Stifel: Buy but $94 target (below current) citing “noise” and opportunity if mid-term targets are met.
Wall Street pros: constructive on capacity/tightening dynamics and potential upside if mid-term targets are achieved.
Wall Street cons: near-term earnings quality and visibility are questioned; several mainstream targets imply the stock is already ahead of their base cases.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ARCB stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARCB is 87.38 USD with a low forecast of 76 USD and a high forecast of 104 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

5 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 109.650

Low

Averages

87.38

High

104

Current: 109.650

Low

Averages

87.38

High

104

UBS

Thomas Wadewitz

Neutral

maintain

$77 -> $98

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

Reason

UBS

Thomas Wadewitz

Price Target

$77 -> $98

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

UBS analyst Thomas Wadewitz raised the firm's price target on ArcBest to $98 from $77 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

Stifel

J. Bruce Chan

Buy

downgrade

$96 -> $94

2026-02-02

Reason

Stifel

J. Bruce Chan

Price Target

$96 -> $94

2026-02-02

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Stifel analyst J. Bruce Chan lowered the firm's price target on ArcBest to $94 from $96 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. ArcBest reported Q4 adjusted EPS below the firm's and the Street's estimates, but the firm sees "good opportunity for upside" as it notes that most of the operating shortfall came from a $3.6M EBIT decline in the Corporate segment, below the line headwind from Other income and a higher-than-modeled tax rate and adds that there was "a lot of noise in January trends to date." If ArcBest can deliver anywhere near 2028 mid-term targets, the firm sees "meaningful opportunity," the analyst added.

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ARCB Should I Buy

ARCB Should I Buy

Should You Buy ArcBest Corp (ARCB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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