Should I Buy AR? AR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Antero Resources Corp (AR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

34.370

1 Day change

1.54%

52 Week Range

44.020

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is sitting just below the pivot (34.764) with no strong momentum signal and limited edge.
If you must take action today, it’s more of a “wait for either a dip toward support (33.48–32.69) or a clean break above 34.76/36.04” setup than a chase-at-open setup.
Options flow is call-leaning intraday, but overall positioning is neutral and implied volatility is elevated, which reduces the attractiveness of initiating fresh directional risk right here.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.156) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
RSI(6) at 46.6 = neutral; no oversold/overbought edge.
Moving averages are converging → consolidation/range behavior more likely than a trend launch.
Key levels: Pivot 34.764 (near-term decision point). Support 33.484 then 32.694. Resistance 36.044 then 36.834.
Price context: pre-market ~34 is closer to support than resistance, but still below pivot—technically “not confirmed bullish” yet.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Open interest put/call ~0.98 = broadly neutral longer positioning.
Flow: Volume put/call 0.14 = call-dominant day flow (bullish bias), though it can also reflect short-dated speculation/hedging.
Volatility: IV 30d 43.6% vs HV 45.0% (roughly in-line), but IV percentile 70 → options are relatively expensive vs the past year.
Activity: Today’s volume is well below recent 10d avg (4,732 vs 9,736) → sentiment signal isn’t “high conviction” from volume alone.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Strategic/M&A tailwind: prior HG acquisition and WV datacenter ecosystem narrative have been viewed positively by several analysts (synergies, NAV uplift).
- Sector setup: multiple firms have highlighted improving 2026 setup for Energy/natural gas E&Ps.
- Event catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-11 (After Hours) could re-price the stock if guidance/cash flow surprise to the upside.
- Options tape today is call-leaning, which can help near-term upside attempts if price reclaims the pivot (34.764).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- No fresh news this week → fewer immediate catalysts to break the current consolidation.
- Recent analyst actions include price target cuts (commodity-deck/strip adjustments and oversupply concerns), which can cap near-term multiple expansion.
- Macro/commodity risk: BofA flagged rising 2027 oversupply risk for gas-levered names.
- Technical: momentum is not strengthening (MACD contracting) and price is still below pivot → higher chance of chop than breakout.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $1.175B, +13.22% YoY (top-line growth improved).
Profitability: Net income $76.2M, down -315.52% YoY; EPS $0.24, down -318.18% YoY (earnings power materially weaker YoY).
Margin: Gross margin 18.19%, up +119.16% YoY (operating/mix improvement, but not translating into higher bottom-line YoY).
Takeaway: growth is present in revenue/margins, but earnings volatility remains a key overhang going into the next print.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend (Jan 2026): multiple firms lowered price targets while maintaining their prior stances (Morgan Stanley Overweight; Barclays Equal Weight; BofA Buy) — signaling “still like it, but near-term commodity deck/strip is less supportive.”
Earlier (Dec 2025): several firms raised targets and highlighted M&A/synergies and 2026 energy setup (Wells Fargo, UBS, Mizuho, Barclays).
Wall Street pros: accretive M&A/synergies, potential WV datacenter demand angle, favored natural gas E&P setup into 2026.
Wall Street cons: near-term commodity uncertainty, longer-dated oversupply risk, and reduced cash-flow expectations tied to realized prices.

16 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AR is 45.4 USD with a low forecast of 36 USD and a high forecast of 55 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

11 Buy

5 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 33.850

Low

Averages

45.4

High

Current: 33.850

Low

Averages

45.4

High

Morgan Stanley

Overweight

downgrade

$48 -> $46

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$48 -> $46

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Antero Resources to $46 from $48 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm marked its 2026-27 oil price deck for strip as of January 7 in conjunction with its Q4 preview for the E&Ps, oil majors and Canadian producers. The firm expects "fairly clean" Q4 operational updates but lighter cash flow from price realizations, the analyst tells investors in the preview.

Barclays

Equal Weight

downgrade

$46 -> $41

2026-01-21

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$46 -> $41

2026-01-21

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Antero Resources to $41 from $46 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the exploration and production group as part of a Q4 preview. The upstream sector's cash return model "remains resilient" amid macro volatility, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays see attractive opportunities in U.S. onshore. It tells investors to "tread carefully" through the near-term commodity uncertainty.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for AR

Unlock Now

AR Should I Buy

AR Should I Buy

Should You Buy Antero Resources Corp (AR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch