Buy now: price ($6.54 pre-market) sits in an emerging uptrend (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) with near-term upside toward $6.63–$6.71, and analyst targets $7.00–$7.50 imply ~7%–15% upside.
Sentiment supports buying: options positioning is call-leaning and hedge funds are aggressively increasing buying (+241.67% QoQ).
Main drawback: short-horizon pattern stats lean slightly negative for the next day/week (both -1.5%), so expect some chop—but for an impatient buyer, the trend/positioning still favors entering now.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-candlestick projection: -1.5% next day, -1.5% next week, +3.62% next month (short-term dip risk, better 1-month skew).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Put/Call open interest ratio 0.62 = more calls than puts (bullish tilt).
Flow today: Put/Call volume ratio 0.2 (calls dominating volume), albeit on very low absolute volume (12 contracts total).
Volatility: 30D IV 49.82% vs historical vol 31.55%; IV percentile 70.8 = options are priced for elevated movement.
Open interest/volume context: Today’s volume is 14.46x 30D avg, but from a small base; total OI 11,803 (calls 7,292 vs puts 4,511).
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
Rate-case catalyst path into 2026: National Bank expects multiple rate cases to be approved/implemented, potentially closing ROE/valuation gap to peers.
Wall Street momentum improving: Recent upgrades to Buy/Outperform with raised targets.
Institutional behavior: Hedge funds show strong net buying (+241.67% QoQ).
Earnings catalyst ahead: Next earnings QDEC 2025 on 2026-03-06 (pre-market) (event that can reprice the stock if results/guide improve).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Momentum soft patch: MACD histogram slightly negative and worsening, which can cap immediate upside.
Short-term statistical drift: Pattern analogs point to ~ -1.5% over next day/week.
Elevated implied volatility: Options pricing is rich (IV well above historical), signaling the market expects bigger swings.
No near-term news support: No fresh news in the past week to provide an immediate headline-driven push.
Takeaway: Revenue/margins are steady-to-slightly better, but profitability/EPS trend is the key weakness that must stabilize for sustained upside.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend (upgrades, higher targets):
2026-01-07 (National Bank): Upgraded to Outperform; PT $7.50 (from $7). Thesis: 2026 rate-case approvals/implementation as catalysts.
2026-01-06 (National Bank): Upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform.
2025-11-10 (Janney): Upgraded to Buy; fair value $7 (from $6) on strong Q3 and continued rate-case execution.
Wall Street pros: Multiple upgrades, clear regulatory/rate-case catalyst narrative, targets above current price.
Wall Street cons: The business still needs cleaner earnings consistency (recent YoY profit/EPS collapse is the core concern).
Influential/politician trading: No recent congress trading data available; insiders are neutral (no notable recent activity).
Wall Street analysts forecast AQN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AQN is 6.75 USD with a low forecast of 6.5 USD and a high forecast of 7.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AQN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AQN is 6.75 USD with a low forecast of 6.5 USD and a high forecast of 7.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 6.530
Low
6.5
Averages
6.75
High
7.5
Current: 6.530
Low
6.5
Averages
6.75
High
7.5
National Bank
Sector Perform
to
Outperform
upgrade
$7
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
Reason
National Bank
Price Target
$7
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
upgrade
Sector Perform
to
Outperform
Reason
National Bank upgraded Algonquin Power to Outperform from Sector Perform with a price target of $7.50, up from $7. The firm sees catalysts in 2026 from the company's multiple rate cases expected to be approved and implemented. As rate cases are implemented, Algonquin should close its return on equity and valuation gap to peers, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
National Bank
Rupert Merer
Sector Perform -> Outperform
upgrade
2026-01-06
Reason
National Bank
Rupert Merer
Price Target
2026-01-06
upgrade
Sector Perform -> Outperform
Reason
National Bank analyst Rupert Merer upgraded Algonquin Power to Outperform from Sector Perform.
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